Sunday, June 6, 2010

5 Sox Players Most Likely to be Traded this Season

Hey, I'm back! After a week in North Carolina followed by a week trying to ignore the Sox as much as possible, it's time to start venting my frustrations again. There will be more discussion of Mitch Talbot's absolute domination of the Sox later, believe me, but for now I'll keep things a bit more "big picture."

Before this pathetically pathetic series with the Indians, Ozzie didn't mince words concerning the future fate of some current Pale Hose, essentially saying, "we suck, blow this thing up." So for those of you not as keen on the current state of the Sox, here are the 5 players most likely to be seen at O'Hare Airport with a one-way ticket in hand (and probably, a huge smile on their face).

1) MATT THORNTON

Why He'll Be Traded: Good teams always need quality, left-handed arms out of the bullpen, and Thornton has been one of the few overachievers on the roster thus far. Through 22 appearances and 23.1 innings this season, his WHIP is down to a ridiculous 0.676 and his strikeouts are up to a career-best 12.9 K/9 IP. Add that his contract is very reasonable, $2.25 M this season and a $3 M club option in 2011 ($250K buyout) and you have a prime candidate to be dealt.

Why He Might Not: I can see a scenario unfolding where Thornton is so valuable to the Sox, they simply don't feel they're being offered fair value for him. Williams and the front office have been committed to the idea of "rebuilding while competing," and if they continue to stick to that mantra, they may simply not get the kind of quality return they're expecting for Thornton. Though he will be 34 years old by season's end, he's only been a regular in the Majors since his late-20s and has only put 363 innings of mileage on his arm. Plus, though he has been an excellent, and consistent, setup man the past several years, he has very limited closing experience; in the past teams have not bent over backwards to deal upper echelon talent for a bullpen arm who doesn't close.

2) PAUL KONERKO


Why He'll Be Traded: If I would have sat down and made this list at the beginning of the year, I probably would have put Konerko on it, but not this high. Then the Sox tanked. Then Konerko got off to one of the most productive starts of his career. And then Angels (the constant destination for Konerko trade rumors for the past several years) 1B Kendry Morales hurt himself, possibly for the remainder of the season, celebrating a home run. It's the Perfect Storm to move Konerko, whose contract expires at the end of this season and has publicly stated he would waive his no-trade clause for a deal that suits him and helps the Sox.

Why He Might Not: For one, the Sox are loyal, sometimes to a fault, and the thought of them trading the guy who handed the World Series ball to Jerry Reinsdorf at the Parade in 2005 just does not compute. Additionally, he'd be the ultimate rent-a-player, playing out his contract to the end of this season, because I can't see anyone offering him salary arbitration and risk having to pay the guy $9.6 M next season. I know, I know, he's having a great year right now (currently 6th in the AL with a .592 Slugging Percentage), but otherwise, he's been remarkably consistent at being a below average bat at an offensively important position. Finally, it looks like it's going to be a buyer's market for 1B this trade season, as Konerko may be joined by such other names like Lance Berkman, Russell Branyan, Adam LaRoche, and maybe even Prince Fielder.

3) FREDDY GARCIA

Why He'll Be Traded: As the senior-most member of the White Sox pitching staff and the only one not under contract in 2011, Garcia was automatically the most logical choice to be jettisoned. He's basically the only thing keeping top pitching prospect Dan Hudson in Charlotte right now. However, he's also been arguably the Sox most consistent pitcher this year, as well. Though his cumulative stats don't look great, a quick glance at his game logs for 2010 shows that in 7 of his 10 starts this season, he's allowed 2 ER or fewer and has basically been everything you'd want from a 5th starter. Add in his reputation around the league as a "bulldog" and "big game starter;" how many teams are so deep with starting pitching they might not take a chance on him? If Jose Contreras can wind up in the middle of a play-off run last year, Freddy can, too.

Why He Might Not: Garcia makes the most sense to be dealt, but if the Sox really shake things up and go for a bigger return by dealing Gavin Floyd or Mark Buehrle, they may wind up keeping Freddy for another go-around at the Cell. The relationship between the Sox coaching and Garcia has been mutually beneficial for most of its existence, and again, if there's one thing this organization prides itself on, it is loyalty.

4) A.J. PIERZYNSKI

Why He'll Be Traded: I would have pegged A.J. the most likely to be traded this year if the Sox tanked; 33 years old, expiring contract, and blocking Tyler Flowers, the Sox's #1 Prospect. It seemed to make almost no sense to keep him. That's not a knock on AJ, who has had an incredibly solid, consistent run in Chicago, suiting up for 130-140 games every season, being an almost lock for a .280/.320/.420 year at the plate, and despite some concerns about his defense, anchoring a pitching staff that has generally been one of the American League's best during his tenure.

Why He Might Not: A complete double-whammy; A.J.'s looking like he's 33 going on 43 at the plate and the wheels have completely fallen off the Tyler Flowers bandwagon. He is currently hitting .209/.315/.418 for the Knights (who play in a bandbox, by the way) and absolutely does not look ready for the Majors... He's struck out 63 times in 178 plate appearances, for god's sake! As for A.J., the big dilemma concerning his future with the Sox is, coupled with his poor start, his 10/5 rights kick in next Monday, giving him full no-trade protection under the current CBA. Do the Sox sell low and early this week, or do they hold back and hope they can find a suitor later this season that offers a fair package in return and would be an attractive destination for Pierzynski?

5) CARLOS QUENTIN

Why He'll Be Traded: To be honest, I'm even having problems filling out this last slot. I'll give Quentin the nod (for reasons I'll explain in just a sec), but this could also very easily be Bobby Jenks, J.J. Putz, or even Alex Rios. Quentin, however, takes the cake because he appeals to everyone, not just teams in contention, as long as they are willing to take on his neurosis for the potential pay-off of a 27-year-old with legitimate MVP-quality production. Since busting out in 2008, Quentin has been terrible for the Sox; 146 games and an OPS+ under 100... in a power hitter's ballpark!

A lot of Carlos' struggles have been attributed to the fact that he's too intense and apparently, uncoachable. It wouldn't stun me if the Sox, tired of his antics, simply cut him loose and try to start over in the outfield.

Why He Might Not: First and foremost, there's really nobody to take his spot. The Sox's best two outfield prospects are Jared Mitchell, not nearly ready to play in the Majors everyday and out for the season with an ankle injury, and Jordan Danks, also having himself a strikeout-filled, poor season in Charlotte. Bailing on Quentin probably means a healthy dose of Alejandro de Aza, at least in the short-term. More than that, though, the Sox would absolutely be selling low on Quentin. The guy hit .288/.394/.571 two seasons ago! There's no way any team is going to offer anybody with greater potential than him. He's still young and not eligible to become a free agent until 2013. I can see him being dealt, but my gut says he stays.

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