6/22: Mariners 2, Cubs 0

Cubs' MVP: Alfonso Soriano, .139 WPA
Soriano was the only Cub who brought any offense to the table last night, collecting three hits. He led off the fifth with a bloop double, although he was promptly doubled off on some questionable baserunning. Soriao also had two singles late in the game setting up two-out RBI opportunities for Jesus Colvin, but the rookie couldn't get it done both times.

Yesterday's game brought his wOBA to a modest .341 in the past week, which is a big improvement from his overall .288 wOBA in June. Hopefully Soriano is breaking out of his little mini slump. Not because it means anything for the 2010 Cubs, but hopefully it will keep the boo birds of Soriano's back when Wrigley turns real ugly this summer.

Mariners' MVP: Jason Vargas, .376 WPA
Vargas threw seven innings of four hit baseball against the Cubs impotent offense. He walked only one and struck out seven. With Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez next in this series, I think it's safe to say the Cubs chances of scoring a single run in Seattle are close to zero.

Vargas has had a surprisingly strong 2010 for Seattle. His ERA has now dropped to 2.66 in fourteen starts. He made fourteen starts all of last year for Seattle and 4.91 ERA. What's been the difference this year?

Is he striking out more batters? Nope. 5.91 K/9 this year, 5.3 last year.

Is he walking less batters? Nope. 2.36 BB/9 last year, 2.27 this year.

Are more of his fly balls staying in the cavernous park he calls home this year, where he's made 9 of 14 starts? You betcha! 12.7 HR/FB in 2009, a miniscule 4.9 in 2010. Is this a sustainable number? Probably not, especially considering 50%  of the balls in play against Vargas have been fly balls this year (47.8 career). To be fair, his LD% is way down in 2010. He's not getting hit as hard as he used to. Giving up a lot of weak fly balls in Safeco is a recipe for success, but he's certainly a regression candidate to keep your eyes on.

Cubs' LVP: Tyler Colvin, -.272 WPA
Colvin ended both the seventh and ninth innings with a man on third base. His lineout in the fourth inning also resulted in a damaging double play. It was the third worst WPA performance by a Cubs' hitter this season.

I had starting writing a post on Tyler Colvin and what to expect from him the rest of the season. Then I stopped for a while. Then Foul Pole to Foul Pole pretty much wrote exactly what I had been working on. It's good. You should read it.

Mariners' LVP: Josh Wilson, -.082 WPA
Wilson went 1-4 with a strikeout and GIDP. Whatever.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Franklin Gutierrez hits a two run home run in the second inning, the only scoring the game would see. (.175 WPA)

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
In the top of the eighth inning with runners on first and second and nobody out, Marlon Byrd grounds into a 4-6-3 double play.

June 17: Cubs 3, Athletics 2

Thousands gathered on Michigan Avenue late last night to celebrate the Cubs' two-game winning streak.

Cubs' MVP: Carlos Marmol, .310 WPA 

Because it's a cumulative stat, you know that if a pitcher only gets two outs but leads the game in WPA, they were a pretty freaking big two outs.

Marmol entered the game in the top of the ninth inning, with one out and the go ahead man on third. The A's win probability at the time was 68.3%

He walked the first batter, because he's Carlos Marmol. But he retired the next two batters on three pitches to end the inning, dropping the A's win expectancy to 36%.

Marmol did fail to retire a batter via strikeout, however, and his K/9 has now "plummeted" to 16.43.

Athletics' MVP: Dallas Braden, .173 WPA, (.227 pitching)
Braden pitched six innings of one run ball, his only blemish a solo home run in the first inning by Jeff Baker. He struck out four and walked one.

Everyone knows Dallas Braden this season from his perfect game, his vendetta against Alex Rodriguez, and his free-spirited grandmother. It's been quite a season already for the the 27 year old pitcher, but ever since his perfecto he's been human.

In the last month before today's start, Braden's FIP is at 4.52, his WHIP is over 1.5, and teams are hitting over .300 against him. He hasn't been missing bats lately as teams are making contact 88.9% of the time against Braden the last month, good for sixth worst in the AL. His slider has been particularly bad, and Braden only threw it once today. His changeup is his best pitch and it was on today, getting eleven swinging strikes with it. A's fans should be encouraged by his start today.

Cubs' LVP: Alfonso Soriano, -.241 WPA
Soriano struck out with the bases loaded in the first, flew out twice, then struck out again in the eighth with a man on third and two outs with the game tied. Soriano's been in a funk the last two weeks, hitting .161/.291/.355 in that span, while striking out 29% of the time.

Athletics' LVP: Jerry Blevins, -.360 WPA 
Blevins came in to pitch the bottom of the ninth after Bob Geren forgot that in the National League his closer Andrew Bailey would have to bat if he wanted to stay in the game. Blevins walked the bases loaded (one intentional) and the only out he could manage was Starlin Castro's sacrifice bunt. Kosuke would win the game with an RBI single.

A lot of people questioned the intentional walk to Koyie Hill, and I have to say I agree. Blevins completely owns lefties this season; his FIP against lefties is 0.51, and his K/9 is over 13. So they walk Koyie Hill and his .245 wOBA to face the right handed Theriot, then pull the infield in against the left handed Fukudome with speedster Geovany Soto at third. Brilliant!

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Mark Ellis' solo home run in the seventh broke a 1-1 tie late in the ballgame. (.192 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
With runners on first and third and only one out in the top of the ninth, Gabe Gross fouls out to Starlin Castro. (-.184 WPA)

Crosstown Series Mega Recap

June 11: White Sox 10, Cubs 5
White Sox MVP: A.J. Pierzynski, .259 WPA
I don't know what it is about Wrigley Field that turns A.J. Pierzynski into Johnny Bench, but the White Sox should find out what it is and bottle it. Pierzynski had a monster game, going 4-5 with three run scoring hits, including a late home run. Not too shabby for the catcher with a .649 OPS and .283 wOBA, both career lows.

Cubs' MVP: Alfonso Soriano, .114 WPA
Soriano tied the game at 2-2 in the second inning with his 300th career homer, and also "drove in" two more in the eighth inning on Jayson Nix's error. He finished the game 1-4.

White Sox LVP: Jayson Nix, -.080 WPA
Nix went 0-4 with four flyouts, and also reached base on an intentional walk in the fifth. Apparently a guy with no bat was on deck, because it's really the only excusable reason to want to not pitch to Jayson Nix, who is sporting a robust .219 wOBA in 53 plate appearances for the White Sox this season. He also committed the aforementioned error that allowed two (meaningless) Cubs runs to score late in the game.

Cubs' LVP: Randy Wells, -.326 WPA (-.301 pitching)
Wells yet again had major first inning issues, allowing four straight two out hits to open the game. He pitched five innings, giving up five runs and ten hits, walking three, and striking out six. Wells' ERA now sits at 5.15, but his FIP is a mere 3.47. He's striking out batters more frequently than his impressive rookie campaign, walking about the same amount of batters, and giving up home runs at nearly an identical rate. So what gives?

Wells' BABIP is a hefty .359. Some might call that an unlucky figure that will regress, but then you have to look at his 25.9 LD% as the culprit. Batters are making very solid contact against Wells' this season, and it's something that the Cubs might want to look into.

One last note about Wells: there are rumors swirling around the interwebs that Randy was out partying with the Blackhawks all night before his start. As far as I know there is no actual evidence to this beyond anecdotal, but as we all know hearsay and conjecture are acceptable forms of evidence in the Cubs' blogosphere.

So Randy Wells was DEFINITELY out partying all night, and on top of that my sources tell me he took home an uggo. I wish it weren't true, but I am afraid it appears to be so.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With no outs in the fifth inning, Paul Konerko hits a two-run double to give the Sox the lead for good. (.182 WPA)

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
Already trailing by two runs early, Ryan Theriot grounds into a double play in the first inning after Kosuke Fukudome had reached base. (-.077 WPA)

June 12: White Sox 2, Cubs 1

White Sox MVP: Mark Buehrle, .308 WPA (.395 pitching)
Buehrle was solid, although hittable, in the second game of the series. He pitched 6.2 shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none. The Cubs were able to get eight hits, but couldn't get a run on the board.

Buehrle is having another solid season by his standards, but there are a few things to take note of. His ERA is just shy of 5.00, although FIP has him at a respectable 4.07. His strikeouts are down this year (4.34 K/9, down from his 5.16 career rate), and his WHIP has jumped to 1.46, the highest of his career. Teams are manufacturing more runs against Buehrle this season even though his batted ball numbers are pretty much the same. He might be due for some regression.

Cubs' MVP: Marlon Byrd, .119 WPA
The ByrdMan went 3-4 with two singles and a double. Kudos also to Ryan Theriot (.082 WPA) for driving in the only Cubs' run, and to Carlos Silva (.117 WPA pitching) for throwing a solid game despite getting stuck with the loss.

White Sox LVP: Carlos Quentin, -.113 WPA
It's been a miserable season for Carlos Quentin thus far, and Saturday was no different. Quentin went 0-5 with two strikeouts. His OBP for the season has now dipped under .300.

Cubs' LVP: Alfonso Soriano, -.191 WPA
Soriano went 0-4, striking out twice. He also ended the eighth inning with a runner in scoring position.

Biggest Hit of the Game: 
With two outs in the seventh inning, Paul Konerko "singled" to right field to drive in the eventual winning run. Xavier Nady briefly uprooted himself to make an attempt to catch the ball, one that Kosuke would have pitched a tent and camped under, with enough time to start a fire with his bare hands and make s'mores for the whole team. (.121 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
In the ninth inning and the White Sox holding a 2-1 lead, Bobby Jenks strikes out Chad Tracy to end the game. (-.100 WPA)

June 13: Cubs 1, White Sox 0

Now that's what I'm talking about!

Cubs' MVP: Ted Lilly, .385 WPA (.456 pitching)
This one's a no-brainer. Lilly pitched eight no hit innings before giving up a leadoff single to Juan Fucking Pierre to start the ninth. He was his usual fly ball self, inducing fourteen of them throughout the night. Lilly only struck out three but his control was excellent all night, and the White Sox just could not manage any solid contact whatsoever.

Lilly's fastball and sinker averaged 88 and 87 MPH, respectively, and Lilly was close to 90 with his fastball throughout the game:

As far as I'm concerned, Lilly's velocity issues are a thing of the past.

In case you're counting at home, the Cubs have now supplied Ted Lilly with an unimaginable sixteen runs of support in his ten starts.

Honorable mentions also go out to Carlos Marmol (.281 WPA) who managed to get out of a massive ninth inning jam of his own creation, and to Chad Tracy (.154 WPA) who finally did something useful since his callup from Iowa.

White Sox MVP: Gavin Floyd, .230 WPA (.236 pitching)
Floyd threw a helluva game himself, going eight strong innings allowing just three hits, and striking out nine. Coincidentally, David Golebiewski wrote a piece a few weeks ago on Rotographs about why Gavin Floyd was a solid candidate to show improvement as the season progressed.

Cubs' LVP: Starlin Castro, -.100 WPA
Castro went 1-3 with an inning-ending double play in the fifth, and was also caught stealing in the eighth.

White Sox LVP: Carlos Quentin, -.301 WPA
Quentin had his second straight 0-fer, with three flyouts and a strikeout. He could have played the hero in the ninth with two out and the bases loaded, but Carlos Marmol got him to pop up to shallow center to end the series.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With two outs in the seventh inning, Chad Tracy singled in the only run of the game. (.201 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game: 
Carlos Quentin ends the game on a flyout with the bases loaded.

Most Bizarre Play of the Game:

Seeing as how this is a Chicago baseball blog, I suppose there will be more content posted from this series, perhaps a few tidbits about what we learned over the course of the weekend from both sides.

Number of Wins for the White Sox to Clinch The Beloved Crosstown Cup: 2

How President Obama Feels About the Ideo of his Favorite Team Hoisting a Trophy With a BP Logo:

Memorial Day Mega Recap

I'll be completely honest: I saw very little, if any Cubs' baseball this holiday weekend. Apparently, that was a good idea. I'm going to try and blow through this recap quickly before the Blackhawks game starts.

5/29: Cubs 5, Cardinals 0

Cubs' MVP: Carlos Silva, .315 WPA (.343 pitching)
Silva was flat-out dominant on Saturday afternoon, pitching seven shutout innings and allowing only two baserunners the entire game. He also rung up eleven Cardinals, a career high for the portly right-hander with a career 3.90 K/9. He even struck out Albert Pujols. Seriously.

Silva's sinker was superb. He threw it 50 times, 34 for strikes. The win dropped Silva's FIP and xFIP down to 3.80 and 3.86, respectively.

Cardinals' MVP: Brendan Ryan (.034 WPA)
This is a perfect demonstration of how dominant Silva and the Cubs were Saturday: Brendan Ryan improved his team's odds of winning by 3.4 percent...and that was the best on the team.

I'm not even going to bother writing up the LVPs of this game (Adam Ottovino and Derrek Lee, if you're keeping track at home) because quite frankly they didn't matter at all.

5/30: Cardinals 9, Cubs 1

Cubs' MVP: Alfonso Soriano, .129 WPA
Soriano's team-leading 10th game MVP was one of the lone highlights for the Cubs on Sunday. Soriano had a walk and a double in the fourth that put the Cubs right back into the game.

Cardinals' MVP: Albert Pujols, .276 WPA
Pujols officially came out of his "slump" belting three home runs, walking twice (one intentional), and driving in four. The one in the fifth inning went a True Distance of 446 feet according to HitTracker, the longest home run hit at Wrigley this season by someone other than Marlon Byrd. His shot in the first onto Waveland measured at 441 feet. An honorary mention goes to Adam Wainright, who compiled a .251 WPA (.313 on the mound) by pitching seven innings of one run ball.

Cubs' LVP: Starlin Castro, -.232 WPA
Castro had the worst game of any Cub despite going 2-3. He singled in the second inning, but Aramis Ramirez was cut down at the plate (-.048 WPA). Hardly his fault. But his double play with the bases loaded that ended the fourth inning essentially ended any chance the Cubs had of winning this game. That, and when Albert Pujols safely arrived at Wrigley Field. The .232 WPA is the third worst game performance for a Cubs' hitter this season.

Cardinals' LVP: Jonathan Jay, -.065
I'll be totally honest, I had never heard of Jonathan Jay before this game and I'm still not quite sure who he is. Jay went 1-5 with two strikeouts.

5/31: Pirates 2, Cubs 1

Cubs' MVP: Randy Wells, .290 WPA (.301 pitching)
Wells pitched an excellent game today, bouncing back from his woeful start three days ago. On Friday (albeit just sixteen pitches) Wells was tossing up batting practice pitches with very little movement:

Wells had significantly better location and movement in Pittsburgh today, and better results followed.

Wells only lasted five innings but was in line for the all important win before the bullpen surrendered the lead.

Pirates' MVP: Bobby Crosby, .276 WPA
Crosby had the biggest hit of the game, a two-out pinch hit RBI single in the eighth that was the difference in the game.

Props to the unhittable Ross Ohlendorf, who compiled a .278 WPA on the mound this afternoon. On the season, Ohlendorf is sporting an impressive 6.23 xFIP and a stellar 6.57 BB/9 ratio. Here's something else you may not have known: when batters swing at Ross Ohlendorf's pitches inside the strike zone, they make contact 95.8% of the time (Z-Contact%). That is the worst percentage of all NL pitchers with a minimum 20 IP.

So he walks almost seven batters per nine innings, and his stuff is hittable. Naturally, he threw seven innings of three-hit ball, walking only two, and struck out six. It's a way of life.

Cubs' LVP: Sean Marshall, -.259 WPA
Marshall gave up the aforementioned hit to Crosby, which turned out to be the game-winner. Kudos to Aramis Ramirez, who had another 0-fer today with two strikeouts (-.170 WPA).

Pirates' LVP: Andy LaRoche, -.161 WPA
I can't in good conscience give  LaRoche an LVP Award. While he had a poor game at the plate, going 0-3 and ending two innings with runners in scoring position, LaRoche made an incredible defensive play in the eighth inning to keep the game tied, which was the third act in another installment of "How Can We Not Score With a Man In Scoring Position And Zero Outs?"

The 10 Most Epic Wrigley Field Home Runs, 2008-Present (10-6)

Courtesty of Hit Tracker, here are the 10 longest home runs at Wrigley Field since the start of the 2008 season. Why 2008? Because that's the earliest year where I can pull video of the actual home runs, and let's face it, nobody wants to read about really long dingers. People want to see really long dingers.

Hit Tracker uses atmospheric and observational data to determine how far a home run would have gone if its path was unobstructed and landed back at field level. The method to their madness is detailed here.

So nobody has a brain aneurysm from all the gifs, I've split the post into two. Here's 10-6. Follow the link at the bottom for 5-1.

Click on the player's name to see the full video. Click on True Distance to see Hit Tracker's flight representation of the home run.

And away we go:

#10 (tie). Carlos Lee
7/27/09 off Carlos Zambrano
True Distance: 451 feet


Chris Young
10/2/09 off Tom Gorzelanny
True Distance: 451 feet


#9 Alfonso Soriano
5/14/08 off Jake Peavy
True Distance: 453 happy feet 


#8 Derrek Lee 
7/02/09 off Chris Smith
True Distance: 455 happy feet


#7 Marlon Byrd
April 15, 2010 off Jeff Suppan
True Distance: 457 feet


#6 Lance Berkman
5/16/09 off Kevin Gregg
True Distance: 460 feet


5-1 here

May 14: Pirates @ Cubs WPA Recap (Game 36)

Charts and data from Fangraphs

Cubs MVP: Alfonso Soriano (.133 WPA)
Soriano's two-out "double" in the first scored two runs and tied the game at 3. It would stand as the biggest hit of the game for the Cubs, worth .170 WPA.

Pirates MVP: Garrett Jones (.473 WPA)
Jones was a force at the plate today, compiling five hits and driving in five runs, including the go-ahead three run home run in the top of the eighth. Honorable mention has to go to Andrew McCutcheon, who reached base six times and hit a home run of his own. McCutcheon accumulated .371 WPA.

Cubs LVP: Carlos Zambrano (-.412 WPA)
This one's a no-brainer, as Zambrano surrendered the lead in the top of the 8th inning, giving up three runs on four hits.

Pirates LVP: Brian Burres (-.402 WPA)
Just over a week ago, Burres shut the Cubs out for seven innings in a winning effort in Pittsburgh. Today, he fared much worse, giving up five earned runs in four innings. The Cubs made solid contact throughout the day, including Marlon Byrd's solo home run in the fourth inning.

Biggest Hit of the Game
With two on and nobody out in the top of the eighth, Garrett Jones takes Big Z deep and gives the Pirates a late three run lead (.262 WPA).

Worst Out of the Game
After leading off the bottom of the sixth with a single, Mike Fontenot is picked off first base when fellow Cajun Ryan Theriot can't get a sac bunt down (-.084 WPA)

By looking at the graph above, it's easy to see that after a wild first inning, this was a game that was completely up for grabs until Zambrano's disastrous eighth. Gorzellany (-.216 WPA pitching) gave up three runs in the first, but when you're a starter you've got the opportunity to bounce back and try to redeem yourself. Bullpen pitchers don't have that luxury, and it's something Zambrano will probably learn pretty quickly when the newspapers call for his outright release tomorrow morning.

Updated Cubs WPA Game MVP Leaderboard: