Crosstown Series Mega Recap

June 11: White Sox 10, Cubs 5
White Sox MVP: A.J. Pierzynski, .259 WPA
I don't know what it is about Wrigley Field that turns A.J. Pierzynski into Johnny Bench, but the White Sox should find out what it is and bottle it. Pierzynski had a monster game, going 4-5 with three run scoring hits, including a late home run. Not too shabby for the catcher with a .649 OPS and .283 wOBA, both career lows.

Cubs' MVP: Alfonso Soriano, .114 WPA
Soriano tied the game at 2-2 in the second inning with his 300th career homer, and also "drove in" two more in the eighth inning on Jayson Nix's error. He finished the game 1-4.

White Sox LVP: Jayson Nix, -.080 WPA
Nix went 0-4 with four flyouts, and also reached base on an intentional walk in the fifth. Apparently a guy with no bat was on deck, because it's really the only excusable reason to want to not pitch to Jayson Nix, who is sporting a robust .219 wOBA in 53 plate appearances for the White Sox this season. He also committed the aforementioned error that allowed two (meaningless) Cubs runs to score late in the game.

Cubs' LVP: Randy Wells, -.326 WPA (-.301 pitching)
Wells yet again had major first inning issues, allowing four straight two out hits to open the game. He pitched five innings, giving up five runs and ten hits, walking three, and striking out six. Wells' ERA now sits at 5.15, but his FIP is a mere 3.47. He's striking out batters more frequently than his impressive rookie campaign, walking about the same amount of batters, and giving up home runs at nearly an identical rate. So what gives?

Wells' BABIP is a hefty .359. Some might call that an unlucky figure that will regress, but then you have to look at his 25.9 LD% as the culprit. Batters are making very solid contact against Wells' this season, and it's something that the Cubs might want to look into.

One last note about Wells: there are rumors swirling around the interwebs that Randy was out partying with the Blackhawks all night before his start. As far as I know there is no actual evidence to this beyond anecdotal, but as we all know hearsay and conjecture are acceptable forms of evidence in the Cubs' blogosphere.

So Randy Wells was DEFINITELY out partying all night, and on top of that my sources tell me he took home an uggo. I wish it weren't true, but I am afraid it appears to be so.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With no outs in the fifth inning, Paul Konerko hits a two-run double to give the Sox the lead for good. (.182 WPA)

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
Already trailing by two runs early, Ryan Theriot grounds into a double play in the first inning after Kosuke Fukudome had reached base. (-.077 WPA)

June 12: White Sox 2, Cubs 1

White Sox MVP: Mark Buehrle, .308 WPA (.395 pitching)
Buehrle was solid, although hittable, in the second game of the series. He pitched 6.2 shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none. The Cubs were able to get eight hits, but couldn't get a run on the board.

Buehrle is having another solid season by his standards, but there are a few things to take note of. His ERA is just shy of 5.00, although FIP has him at a respectable 4.07. His strikeouts are down this year (4.34 K/9, down from his 5.16 career rate), and his WHIP has jumped to 1.46, the highest of his career. Teams are manufacturing more runs against Buehrle this season even though his batted ball numbers are pretty much the same. He might be due for some regression.

Cubs' MVP: Marlon Byrd, .119 WPA
The ByrdMan went 3-4 with two singles and a double. Kudos also to Ryan Theriot (.082 WPA) for driving in the only Cubs' run, and to Carlos Silva (.117 WPA pitching) for throwing a solid game despite getting stuck with the loss.

White Sox LVP: Carlos Quentin, -.113 WPA
It's been a miserable season for Carlos Quentin thus far, and Saturday was no different. Quentin went 0-5 with two strikeouts. His OBP for the season has now dipped under .300.

Cubs' LVP: Alfonso Soriano, -.191 WPA
Soriano went 0-4, striking out twice. He also ended the eighth inning with a runner in scoring position.

Biggest Hit of the Game: 
With two outs in the seventh inning, Paul Konerko "singled" to right field to drive in the eventual winning run. Xavier Nady briefly uprooted himself to make an attempt to catch the ball, one that Kosuke would have pitched a tent and camped under, with enough time to start a fire with his bare hands and make s'mores for the whole team. (.121 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
In the ninth inning and the White Sox holding a 2-1 lead, Bobby Jenks strikes out Chad Tracy to end the game. (-.100 WPA)

June 13: Cubs 1, White Sox 0

Now that's what I'm talking about!

Cubs' MVP: Ted Lilly, .385 WPA (.456 pitching)
This one's a no-brainer. Lilly pitched eight no hit innings before giving up a leadoff single to Juan Fucking Pierre to start the ninth. He was his usual fly ball self, inducing fourteen of them throughout the night. Lilly only struck out three but his control was excellent all night, and the White Sox just could not manage any solid contact whatsoever.

Lilly's fastball and sinker averaged 88 and 87 MPH, respectively, and Lilly was close to 90 with his fastball throughout the game:

As far as I'm concerned, Lilly's velocity issues are a thing of the past.

In case you're counting at home, the Cubs have now supplied Ted Lilly with an unimaginable sixteen runs of support in his ten starts.

Honorable mentions also go out to Carlos Marmol (.281 WPA) who managed to get out of a massive ninth inning jam of his own creation, and to Chad Tracy (.154 WPA) who finally did something useful since his callup from Iowa.

White Sox MVP: Gavin Floyd, .230 WPA (.236 pitching)
Floyd threw a helluva game himself, going eight strong innings allowing just three hits, and striking out nine. Coincidentally, David Golebiewski wrote a piece a few weeks ago on Rotographs about why Gavin Floyd was a solid candidate to show improvement as the season progressed.

Cubs' LVP: Starlin Castro, -.100 WPA
Castro went 1-3 with an inning-ending double play in the fifth, and was also caught stealing in the eighth.

White Sox LVP: Carlos Quentin, -.301 WPA
Quentin had his second straight 0-fer, with three flyouts and a strikeout. He could have played the hero in the ninth with two out and the bases loaded, but Carlos Marmol got him to pop up to shallow center to end the series.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With two outs in the seventh inning, Chad Tracy singled in the only run of the game. (.201 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game: 
Carlos Quentin ends the game on a flyout with the bases loaded.

Most Bizarre Play of the Game:

Seeing as how this is a Chicago baseball blog, I suppose there will be more content posted from this series, perhaps a few tidbits about what we learned over the course of the weekend from both sides.

Number of Wins for the White Sox to Clinch The Beloved Crosstown Cup: 2

How President Obama Feels About the Ideo of his Favorite Team Hoisting a Trophy With a BP Logo:

June 8: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

I have yet to post any thoughts on the Cubs' draft because, well, I don't really have all that much to say. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I know anything about these prospects beyond what is readily available online. At the very least, maybe later in the week I'll post a list of the Cubs' draftees with links to what people smarter than me think about them. I also have a few thoughts on the Cubs' controversial selection of Hayden Simpson in the first round and how deeply we should be looking into it in terms of the Cubs' financial future.

That being said, onward to last night's recap:

Cubs' MVP: Tyler Colvin, .233 WPA
Colvin was a late addition, replacing Soriano in the lineup in left field. He went 2-4 with two singles in an offensively challenged game, one of which drove in the first run of the game with two outs in the eighth inning.

It's no secret that Cub fans everywhere want their team to buy out Kosukue Fukudome so he can honorably return to Japan or DFA the lazy Alfonso Soriano to make room for Tyler Colvin. Quite frankly, and especially of late, he's earned the right to have his name penciled in the starting lineup a few more times per week. Not because it will help the Cubs' chances in 2010 (it certainly won't), but because the Cubs need to figure out if they have a versatile fourth outfielder in Colvin or a potential power hitting corner outfielder on their hands. This lost 2010 season is the perfect opportunity to do so. In the very near future I plan to take a closer look at Tyler Colvin and what we should expect from him as the season progresses.

Oh, also an honorable mention to Ted Lilly (.221 total WPA, .264 pitching) who threw his best game of the season. Lilly threw eight innings and only allowed four baserunners. He also struck out eight Brewers. His only blemish was a game-tying home run to Corey Hart in the bottom of the eighth. Lilly also displayed an encouraging increase in velocity, averaging nearly 88 mph with his fastball, much more in tune with his career average. Maybe Theodore is finally out of spring training mode, especially considering his off-season shoulder surgery:

Interesting side note: Lilly only threw his curveball once last night, continuing his year long trend. Lilly has only thrown his curve 7.3% of the time in 2010, noticeably down from 11.3% the last two years and his career rate of 15.2%. Statistically his curveball has been one of his least valuable pitches over the course of his career. I wonder if he's shelving it for good.

Brewers' MVP: Casey McGehee. .694 WPA 
The former Cubs' prospect hit the game-winning two run RBI single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth off Carlos Marmol to give the Brewers a walk off win. McGehee now has 45 RBI on the season, which ties him with Troy Glaus for the NL lead.

Cubs' LVP: Carlos Marmol, -.792 WPA
Marmol had a disastrous ninth inning facing the meat of the Brewers' lineup, despite the fact the Brewers only hit one ball out of the infield. Marmol plunked Rickie Weeks to lead off the inning, and after a stolen base, intentionally walked Prince Fielder (the winning run) to face Ryan Braun. Braun grounded out, advancing the runners, and McGehee won it with a single up the middle. Notable was the fact that this was Marmol's second consecutive outing without a strikeout, the first time he's done that on back to back occasions all season (only four times overall). As a result, Marmol's K/9 rate has plummeted to an even 17.

The -.792 WPA is the worst single game performance of the season for the Cubs, allowing Esmalin Caridad to breathe a sigh of relief.

Brewers' LVP: John Axford, -.292 WPA
Axford pitched the ninth and momentarily surrendered the lead. After two consecutive singles by Koyie Hill and The Reason, Alfonso Soriano hit an RBI groundout.

I didn't know anything about John Axford until I saw a Cardinals-Brewers game last weekend. Last night aside, he's been pretty solid out of the pen this year for the Brewers, sporting a 1.80/2.74 FIP/xFIP. He's striking out over 11 batters per nine innings and has yet to allow a home run. His fastball also hits the mid-to-upper 90s.

The Brewers certainly have had issues with their bullpen the last few years. It's been pretty bad this year, accumulating a 6.12 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, ten blown saves, a BAA over .300, and 23 home runs allowed. They've already used fourteen different relievers this year, but it looks like Axford just may stick.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Casey McGehee's game winning RBI single in the ninth (duh); .753 WPA

Biggest Out of the Game:
Carlos Gomez pops out to Marmol, failing to get down a sac bunt in the ninth; -.127 WPA
(*headdesk*)

Biggest Out of the Game by the Cubs:
Ryan Theriot grounds out with the bases loaded to end the fifth; -.096 WPA

On the first pitch.

After Yovani Gallardo walked Ted Lilly on five pitches the previous at bat.

Yes, Ryan Theriot is so bad at baseball that opposing pitchers are now walking career .117 hitters who swing like an eleven year old girl so they can face him instead.

Let that one soak in for a while.

June 1: Cubs @ Pirates (Game 53)

Cubs' MVP: Xavier Nady, .237 WPA
I wrote yesterday that Xavier Nady's batted ball numbers indicated that he was the unluckiest hitter on the team thus far. Nady had been hitting line drives 28% of the time with a minimal number of pop-ups, but was only batting at a .222 clip.

Well, that changed yesterday, as Nady had his finest offensive game as a Cub: four hits, including a double and a deep two-run home run to open up the scoring.

Pirates' MVP: Neil Walker, .449 WPA 
The Great Neil Walker delivered the deciding blow of the game, hitting a two-run homer off Ted Lilly in the bottom of the eighth, his first career home run. Walker is a former first round draft pick back in 2004, and his journey through the minor league ranks was recently charted in a Rotographs article by David Golebiewski. He's dropped off in the last few years, but playing the Cubs tends to bring out the best in people. He looks to be a super-utility player, as he's spent a decent amount of time at nearly every position in the minor leagues. The Pirates hope they have a future Ben Zobrist type player on their hands, or perhaps (OMG) Mark DeRosa.

Cubs' LVP: Ted Lilly, -.231 WPA (-.182 pitching)
Lilly was cruising along in this one until the eighth inning, when he walked Andrew McCutcheon with one out. The next batter was the aforementioned Neil Walker, who homered to one of the deepest areas of the park. Just for fun, Lilly stayed in the game for the next two batters, walking one of them, before Carlos Marmol came in and did what he does best: strike MFers out. Lilly ended up pitching 7.2 innings, striking out six, walking four, and surrendering two home runs (the other to Garrett Jones, who has officially achieved Cub Killer status).

I said I'd keep an eye on Ted Lilly's velocity because it's been down for a good portion of this year. Brooks has his fastball and sinker averaging around 85 mph, which is right about where he's been all season. However, Lilly's velocity was peaking last night towards the end of the game, which is an encouraging sign. Just take a look at pitch speed charts from his last two starts:

5/27 against LA:

6/1 against PIT:

So there was still some gas left in the tank towards the end of the game this time around, though he wasn't throwing those pitches for strikes. Something to keep an eye on.

Pirates' LVP: Ronny Cedeno, -.158 WPA
Cedeno went 0-3 with a strikeout and grounded into a double play to end the seventh inning.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Walker's home run. (.548 WPA)

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
Cedeno's double play in the seventh. (-.113 WPA)

It was over when*:
Marlon Byrd struck out leading off the ninth inning. (Pirate's Win Probability: 96.4%)

*Play in which the result allowed the eventual winning team's victory probability to surpass 95%, and stay above that mark for the remainder of the game

Today's Reason to be Excited About Starlin Castro:

 

May 27: Dodgers @ Cubs (Game 47)

Cubs' MVP: Ted Lilly (.396 WPA, .448 pitching)
Lilly threw seven really strong innings today. The Dodgers loaded the bases in the fifth with two outs, and really had no other legitimate chances to plate any runs beyond that. Lilly allowed only three hits, walked three more, and struck out five. His .448 WPA pitching performance is the second best by a Cubs' starter this season, trailing only Ryan Dempster's stellar performance against the Dodgers two nights ago.

So results aside, the question was asked by a commenter (can't remember who) at the 126th best Cubs' blog of whether or not Lilly's decreased velocity this season is of concern. Fangraphs has his fastball averaging 85.9 MPH so far this season, down almost two full miles per hour from his career average. How did his start fare today? From Brooks Baseball:

Lilly threw 23 fastballs at an average of 85.54 MPH, which is right at his season average. His slider sat around 79-80, also right at his slightly-down season average. Lilly also threw 54 changeups averaging 80.13 MPH, which is above the norm for him.

Lilly traditionally is a slow starter in terms of his velocity, and with the missed time from his shoulder injury he may still be in spring training mode. Still, this already being his seventh start, it might be something to keep an eye on. 

Dodgers' MVP: John Ely (.079 WPA, .155 pitching)

The 24-year old former White Sox draft pick threw a pretty good game himself, giving up one earned run in 7.1 innings. He struck out four, walked two, and gave up only four hits. On the season Ely has a superb 1.81 FIP along with a 3.23 xFIP. He's been striking out nearly eight batters per nine innings, has only six walks in 40 innings, and has already been worth 1.4 WAR. His changeup is his money pitch, which he threw 30 times today. Looking at his velocity chart, you can really see the diversity in the speeds of his 3 main pitches:

Ely has been one of the best rookie pitchers in baseball this season.

Cubs' LVP: Geovany Soto (-.127 WPA)
Soto went 0-3 with a strikeout, which came with a runner on third and nobody out in the 8th inning. Since May 15, Soto has one hit, a .193 wOBA and an OPS of .350. Is it time to start seriously worrying about Geo? This is something I'm going to hopefully look at in detail shortly.

Dodgers' LVP: Xavier Paul (-.206 WPA)
The Other Xavier had a miserable day in the field and at the plate. Paul went 0-4 with a strikeout, and ended the fifth inning on an infield pop-up with the bases loaded. He also has apparently never played in a baseball stadium with walls, as he misplayed two balls in the right field corner in the eighth inning that gave the Cubs the only run of the game.

When you're not even the best outfielder named Xavier on the field, you know you had a bad day.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Mike Fontenot leads off the eighth with a triple (.217 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
Xavier Paul ends the fifth inning with a bases loaded pop-up. (-.096 WPA).