June 4: Cubs @ Astros (Game 54)

Cubs' MVP: Marlon Byrd, .174 WPA
The Byrdman finished 2-4 with two doubles, one of which knocked in the Cubs' only run in the fifth inning. Byrd's been in a big-time slump lately; he has a .539 OPS and .260 wOBA the last two weeks, and those two doubles he hit were the first extra-base hits for Byrd since May 16. He also has three walks since May 4. Naturally, Lou batted him leadoff last night. It's a way of life.

Astros' MVP: Felipe Paulino, .281 WPA (.333 pitching)
Paulino got his first win of the season last night after starting the year 0-7. In fact, in eleven starts this season Paulino has received a whopping sixteen runs of support, which for the Cubs is a solid offensive month. Paulino's peripherals, even traditional ones, indicate that he's been an OK pitcher: ERA of just 4.01, K/9 over 8, a FIP of 3.41 (but an xFIP of 4.46 due to his 2.8% HR/FB ratio, well below his career rate of 12.7%). Paulino had to get a win sometime, he might as well do it against the Cubs.

Cubs' LVP: Ryan Theriot, -.188 WPA
I don't know if words can describe how much I want Ryan Theriot off this team. I mentioned how Marlon Byrd has been slumping as of late. He looks like Honus Fucking Wagner compared to Theriot. Theriot's last thirty days: .213 OBP (zero walks, none since May 1), .196 SLG (zero extra base hits, none since May 4), and a .198 wOBA (Ryan Dempster's in that same time period is .217).

Theriot continued his ways of fail last night with an 0-4 night, which included his failure to drive in any runs in the third inning with men on second and third and just one out.

Astros' LVP: Pedro Feliz, -.096 WPA
Feliz went 1-4 in the game but ended two innings with the bases loaded.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Jeff Keppinger hits and RBI single in the bottom of the fifth to give Houston the 2-1 lead. (.125 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
Ryan Theriot pops out with runners on second and third and one out in the third inning. (-.092 WPA)

It was over when...
Kosuke Fukudome led off the ninth inning with a groundout.

Bush League Play of the Year (so far)

Is Houston Mentally Prepared for Z?

When Hurricane Ike rolled through the Houston area in September of 2008, their series with the Cubs was moved to Milwaukee to avoid the natural disaster. In the first game of the series, Z tossed a no-hitter. It was an incredible performance that punctuated the unforgettable 2008 regular season for Cubs fans.

The Astros handled it gracefully, humbly recognizing that the hardships of traveling one extra series over a 162 game season was peanuts compared to the hardships of Houston residents who had no Miller Park to flee to.

One might think that a feat as significant as a no-hitter would be void from scrutiny. But the lack of mental preparedness from the Astros has placed an asterisk on Z's achievement. Even the Chicago sports media (impartial friend of Carlos Zambrano) agreed:

As if to underscore that fact, Zambrano threw a no-hitter upon returning from an 11-day layoff caused by a mysterious shoulder problem last September. Never mind that he shut down an exhausted Houston Astros team that was escaping Hurricane Ike and playing a supposed home game in Cubs-friendly Miller Park.

That was from Sun-Times columnist Carol Slezak, almost a year after the performance in question.

Flash forward a year and a half, and the Cubs and Astros are playing once again amidst catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico, and once again facing Carlos Zambrano, this time in his highly anticipated return to the starting rotation.

Sure, the slick of 39 million gallons of oil (and counting) isn't anywhere near the Houston shoreline, but it is close enough where if Carlos Zambrano pitches well tomorrow night, we can safely assume it's on the Astros' minds.

We won't know exactly how much the oil spill is bothering them until we see how Zambrano does. So to save columnists everywhere some time, I've compiled a list of headlines for Saturday morning's sports pages, depending on his performance.

W, 9 IP/0 ER/0 H/8 K/3 BB:
Zambrano tosses second questionable no-no against distraught club
Failure of 'top kill' leaves Astros mentally unprepared

W, 8 IP/2 ER/4 H/5 K/3 BB:
Z feasts on easy target
Carlos thinks of himself while Houston thinks of the marshlands 
 
W, 7.2 IP./1 ER/4 H/10 K/2 BB:
Heavy minds equal heavy bats 
Zambrano K's ten troubled 'Stros

L, 7.2 IP./1 ER/3 H/10 K/2 BB:
Back to the pen?
Zambrano fails in return against Houston

ND, 5 IP/3 ER/6 H/6 K/4 BB
BP can't stop oil, Big Z can't stop losing streak
Cubs non-ace tosses a junk shot of a game

L, 3.2 IP/7 ER/8 H/2 K/2 BB
Houston, we still have a problem
Same old Zambrano can't even beat woeful Astros