6/22: Mariners 2, Cubs 0

Cubs' MVP: Alfonso Soriano, .139 WPA
Soriano was the only Cub who brought any offense to the table last night, collecting three hits. He led off the fifth with a bloop double, although he was promptly doubled off on some questionable baserunning. Soriao also had two singles late in the game setting up two-out RBI opportunities for Jesus Colvin, but the rookie couldn't get it done both times.

Yesterday's game brought his wOBA to a modest .341 in the past week, which is a big improvement from his overall .288 wOBA in June. Hopefully Soriano is breaking out of his little mini slump. Not because it means anything for the 2010 Cubs, but hopefully it will keep the boo birds of Soriano's back when Wrigley turns real ugly this summer.

Mariners' MVP: Jason Vargas, .376 WPA
Vargas threw seven innings of four hit baseball against the Cubs impotent offense. He walked only one and struck out seven. With Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez next in this series, I think it's safe to say the Cubs chances of scoring a single run in Seattle are close to zero.

Vargas has had a surprisingly strong 2010 for Seattle. His ERA has now dropped to 2.66 in fourteen starts. He made fourteen starts all of last year for Seattle and 4.91 ERA. What's been the difference this year?

Is he striking out more batters? Nope. 5.91 K/9 this year, 5.3 last year.

Is he walking less batters? Nope. 2.36 BB/9 last year, 2.27 this year.

Are more of his fly balls staying in the cavernous park he calls home this year, where he's made 9 of 14 starts? You betcha! 12.7 HR/FB in 2009, a miniscule 4.9 in 2010. Is this a sustainable number? Probably not, especially considering 50%  of the balls in play against Vargas have been fly balls this year (47.8 career). To be fair, his LD% is way down in 2010. He's not getting hit as hard as he used to. Giving up a lot of weak fly balls in Safeco is a recipe for success, but he's certainly a regression candidate to keep your eyes on.

Cubs' LVP: Tyler Colvin, -.272 WPA
Colvin ended both the seventh and ninth innings with a man on third base. His lineout in the fourth inning also resulted in a damaging double play. It was the third worst WPA performance by a Cubs' hitter this season.

I had starting writing a post on Tyler Colvin and what to expect from him the rest of the season. Then I stopped for a while. Then Foul Pole to Foul Pole pretty much wrote exactly what I had been working on. It's good. You should read it.

Mariners' LVP: Josh Wilson, -.082 WPA
Wilson went 1-4 with a strikeout and GIDP. Whatever.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Franklin Gutierrez hits a two run home run in the second inning, the only scoring the game would see. (.175 WPA)

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
In the top of the eighth inning with runners on first and second and nobody out, Marlon Byrd grounds into a 4-6-3 double play.

June 8: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

I have yet to post any thoughts on the Cubs' draft because, well, I don't really have all that much to say. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I know anything about these prospects beyond what is readily available online. At the very least, maybe later in the week I'll post a list of the Cubs' draftees with links to what people smarter than me think about them. I also have a few thoughts on the Cubs' controversial selection of Hayden Simpson in the first round and how deeply we should be looking into it in terms of the Cubs' financial future.

That being said, onward to last night's recap:

Cubs' MVP: Tyler Colvin, .233 WPA
Colvin was a late addition, replacing Soriano in the lineup in left field. He went 2-4 with two singles in an offensively challenged game, one of which drove in the first run of the game with two outs in the eighth inning.

It's no secret that Cub fans everywhere want their team to buy out Kosukue Fukudome so he can honorably return to Japan or DFA the lazy Alfonso Soriano to make room for Tyler Colvin. Quite frankly, and especially of late, he's earned the right to have his name penciled in the starting lineup a few more times per week. Not because it will help the Cubs' chances in 2010 (it certainly won't), but because the Cubs need to figure out if they have a versatile fourth outfielder in Colvin or a potential power hitting corner outfielder on their hands. This lost 2010 season is the perfect opportunity to do so. In the very near future I plan to take a closer look at Tyler Colvin and what we should expect from him as the season progresses.

Oh, also an honorable mention to Ted Lilly (.221 total WPA, .264 pitching) who threw his best game of the season. Lilly threw eight innings and only allowed four baserunners. He also struck out eight Brewers. His only blemish was a game-tying home run to Corey Hart in the bottom of the eighth. Lilly also displayed an encouraging increase in velocity, averaging nearly 88 mph with his fastball, much more in tune with his career average. Maybe Theodore is finally out of spring training mode, especially considering his off-season shoulder surgery:

Interesting side note: Lilly only threw his curveball once last night, continuing his year long trend. Lilly has only thrown his curve 7.3% of the time in 2010, noticeably down from 11.3% the last two years and his career rate of 15.2%. Statistically his curveball has been one of his least valuable pitches over the course of his career. I wonder if he's shelving it for good.

Brewers' MVP: Casey McGehee. .694 WPA 
The former Cubs' prospect hit the game-winning two run RBI single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth off Carlos Marmol to give the Brewers a walk off win. McGehee now has 45 RBI on the season, which ties him with Troy Glaus for the NL lead.

Cubs' LVP: Carlos Marmol, -.792 WPA
Marmol had a disastrous ninth inning facing the meat of the Brewers' lineup, despite the fact the Brewers only hit one ball out of the infield. Marmol plunked Rickie Weeks to lead off the inning, and after a stolen base, intentionally walked Prince Fielder (the winning run) to face Ryan Braun. Braun grounded out, advancing the runners, and McGehee won it with a single up the middle. Notable was the fact that this was Marmol's second consecutive outing without a strikeout, the first time he's done that on back to back occasions all season (only four times overall). As a result, Marmol's K/9 rate has plummeted to an even 17.

The -.792 WPA is the worst single game performance of the season for the Cubs, allowing Esmalin Caridad to breathe a sigh of relief.

Brewers' LVP: John Axford, -.292 WPA
Axford pitched the ninth and momentarily surrendered the lead. After two consecutive singles by Koyie Hill and The Reason, Alfonso Soriano hit an RBI groundout.

I didn't know anything about John Axford until I saw a Cardinals-Brewers game last weekend. Last night aside, he's been pretty solid out of the pen this year for the Brewers, sporting a 1.80/2.74 FIP/xFIP. He's striking out over 11 batters per nine innings and has yet to allow a home run. His fastball also hits the mid-to-upper 90s.

The Brewers certainly have had issues with their bullpen the last few years. It's been pretty bad this year, accumulating a 6.12 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, ten blown saves, a BAA over .300, and 23 home runs allowed. They've already used fourteen different relievers this year, but it looks like Axford just may stick.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Casey McGehee's game winning RBI single in the ninth (duh); .753 WPA

Biggest Out of the Game:
Carlos Gomez pops out to Marmol, failing to get down a sac bunt in the ninth; -.127 WPA
(*headdesk*)

Biggest Out of the Game by the Cubs:
Ryan Theriot grounds out with the bases loaded to end the fifth; -.096 WPA

On the first pitch.

After Yovani Gallardo walked Ted Lilly on five pitches the previous at bat.

Yes, Ryan Theriot is so bad at baseball that opposing pitchers are now walking career .117 hitters who swing like an eleven year old girl so they can face him instead.

Let that one soak in for a while.

May 21: Cubs @ Rangers WPA Recap (Game 43)

Cubs' MVP: Tyler Colvin (.136 WPA)
Just in case you were wondering how little of an impact the Cubs' offense had on this game, Tyler Colvin was the only player on the team to post a positive WPA at the plate, and that's probably because he didn't get multiple at bats to screw up. In his only plate appearance Colvin ripped a one out double in the top of the ninth to give the Cubs, for a second day in a row, a decent chance to tie the score in the final frame. But for the second day in a row, that just didn't happen.

Fun fact: In the last seven days, Colvin has the team's worst contact percentage at 58.8, but a 50.0 LD% and .625 BABIP. He's swinging and missing a lot, but when he hits the ball he's really whacking it.

Rangers' MVP: Colby Lewis (.261 WPA)
Colby Lewis continues to impress in his second stint with the Rangers. His slider was a big reason the Cubs' offense remained impotent for most of the night, as he only allowed one run and five hits over six innings, walking three and striking out four. Lewis' FIP stands at a healthy 3.45, and his xFIP doesn't stray too far at 4.01. Lewis has probably been the best starter this season for Texas. C.J. Wilson has been good, and his ERA is prettier, but they have similar FIP, an indentical WHIP (1.15) and Lewis strikes more batters out. Dave Allen at Fangraphs wrote a good piece a few weeks ago regarding his slider.

Cubs' LVP: Kosuke Fukudome (-.183 WPA)
After leading off the game with a walk, Kosuke finished 0-4 last night with a strikeout. He ended the second inning by grounding out with a man in scoring position, then ended the game on an infield pop out, again with the tying run in scoring position.

An honorable mention to the Cubs' infield defense, who did this.
 
Rangers' LVP: David Murphy (-.085 WPA)
Murphy went 0-4 with four groundouts, two of which came with a man on second.

Biggest Hit of the Game: Tyler Colvin's aforementioned double in the ninth. Yes, a non-run scoring hit for the team that never led the game was the biggest swing of the game in win probability. That probably tells you how boring this game was. (.136 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game: With runners on second and third and two outs in the eighth, Frank Francisco strikes out Mike Fontenot looking. (-.151 WPA)