May 26: Dodgers @ Cubs WPA Recap (Game 46)

Cubs' MVP: Mike Fontenot (.158 WPA) Jeff Baker (.139 WPA)
I normally stick pretty straight with the numbers when handing out the game MVPs, but you know what? Not this time.

 Fontenot had a nice offensive game, doubling twice and scoring a run. He also had one of the biggest offensive plays of the game for the Cubs, pulling a Homer Simpson and getting plunked with the bases loaded in the third (.098 WPA). But Fontenot had one of the bigger blunders of the game that's not reflected in WPA: his throwing error in the second inning with two outs allowed Matt Kemp to come to the plate with runners on second and third. Kemp doubled to the left-center gap, giving the Dodgers a 5-0 lead early.

So I'm going to go ahead and give the MVP to Jeff Baker, who JUST missed a pinch hit three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh which gave the Cubs some brief hope. The triple was the biggest hit of the game in terms of WPA. (.139)

Dodgers' MVP: Casey Blake (.146 WPA)
Blake had a solid game offensively, hitting an RBI double in the first inning and adding a solo home run in the eighth. He's turning 37 this year but once again he's having a nice season. He's OPSing .846 with a wOBA of .367, both good for sixth overall amongst National League third basemen. (In case you were wondering, Aramis is dead last in both.) Blake is never really a name people come up with when they're thinking of the league's best third basemen, but he's been rock solid the last three years.

Cubs' LVP: Starlin Castro (-.227 WPA)
Rough night for The Reason (as in "the reason I watch the Cubs"). He came up with the bases loaded and no outs in the third and didn't get a runner home. He also struck out swinging in the seventh with a man on third and one out. In the field, Castro booted a ball for his sixth error of the season.

At least he still does cool stuff like this:


Dodgers' LVP: Ronald Belisario (-.084 WPA)
Belisario gets a tough LVP, as he did get Ryan Theriot to ground into a double play to end the sixth. He gave up a single to Derrek Lee in the seventh before Soriano blooped a shallow double in the vicinity of Manny Ramirez. He then left and would get charged with both of those runs after Jeff Baker tripled them home later in the inning.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Jeff Baker's triple (.139 WPA)

Biggest Hit of the Game by the Winning Team:
Matt Kemp's ground-rule double (.103 WPA)

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
With a man on first and one out in the eighth and the Cubs trailing by two, Ryan Theriot grounds into a double play. (-.100 WPA)

Least Direct Route to a Fly Ball:

May 20: Cubs @ Phillies WPA Recap (Game 42)

As always, stats and graphs from Fangraphs


Cubs' MVP: Mike Fontenot (.330 WPA)
Fontenot didn't exactly light up the box score (two singles, one stolen base, no runs or RsBI) but he racked up the most WPA for the team, and by a pretty wide margin as well. Seems pretty strange Fontenot put the Cubs in a better position to win today than say, Kosuke Fukudome, who hit a game-tying solo home run in the top of the eighth inning (.238 WPA).

What this shows is the massive barrel of FAIL the Cubs opened in the top of the ninth inning. The Phillies had an 82.9% chance of winning when the top of the ninth began. After Soriano got plunked in the first at bat, their win probability dropped to 71.4%. After Fontenot's single put men at first and third with nobody out, it dropped all the way down to 44.7%.

You're reading that correctly. The Cubs were down a run in the bottom of the ninth yet found themselves favored to win the game. Two strikeouts and an infield pop up later, WPA as an entity formally apologized for not properly calculating the effect of the Chicago Cubs batting in favorable situations late in the game.

Phillies' MVP: Jimmy Rollins (.308 WPA)
Rollins only had one hit this afternoon but it was the biggest of the game, a three run homer in the bottom of the sixth with two outs to give Philadelphia a 4-1 lead.

I would also like to point out that Rollins' home run came on a 3-0 fastball, belt-high. My biggest pet peeve in all of baseball is a good hitter taking all the way with a 3-0 count. I have no idea why this is a common practice beyond high school baseball. As a hitter, if you run the count to 3-0 and the pitcher throws you ANYTHING but a fastball right in your wheelhouse, by all means take it. But if you get this:

Swing the f away. And he did.

Cubs' LVP: John Grabow (-.265 WPA)
Grabow continues to inexplicably get placed in high leverage situations. Today he coughed up the lead in the bottom of the eighth inning, walking two before giving up an RBI single to Raul Ibanez.

Phillies' LVP: Antonio Bastardo (-.238 WPA)
The Best Name In All of Baseball opened the eighth inning by giving up a game-tying home run to Kosuke Fukudome, the only batter he would face. (And it's not even April!)



Biggest Hit of the Game
Rollins' home run (.305 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game
Aramis' Ramirez strikes out on a pitch 16 feet off the plate in the top of the ninth (-.210 WPA). Soto's pop-up to end the game with the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position earns an honorable mention. (-.206 WPA)