May 27: Dodgers @ Cubs (Game 47)

Cubs' MVP: Ted Lilly (.396 WPA, .448 pitching)
Lilly threw seven really strong innings today. The Dodgers loaded the bases in the fifth with two outs, and really had no other legitimate chances to plate any runs beyond that. Lilly allowed only three hits, walked three more, and struck out five. His .448 WPA pitching performance is the second best by a Cubs' starter this season, trailing only Ryan Dempster's stellar performance against the Dodgers two nights ago.

So results aside, the question was asked by a commenter (can't remember who) at the 126th best Cubs' blog of whether or not Lilly's decreased velocity this season is of concern. Fangraphs has his fastball averaging 85.9 MPH so far this season, down almost two full miles per hour from his career average. How did his start fare today? From Brooks Baseball:

Lilly threw 23 fastballs at an average of 85.54 MPH, which is right at his season average. His slider sat around 79-80, also right at his slightly-down season average. Lilly also threw 54 changeups averaging 80.13 MPH, which is above the norm for him.

Lilly traditionally is a slow starter in terms of his velocity, and with the missed time from his shoulder injury he may still be in spring training mode. Still, this already being his seventh start, it might be something to keep an eye on. 

Dodgers' MVP: John Ely (.079 WPA, .155 pitching)

The 24-year old former White Sox draft pick threw a pretty good game himself, giving up one earned run in 7.1 innings. He struck out four, walked two, and gave up only four hits. On the season Ely has a superb 1.81 FIP along with a 3.23 xFIP. He's been striking out nearly eight batters per nine innings, has only six walks in 40 innings, and has already been worth 1.4 WAR. His changeup is his money pitch, which he threw 30 times today. Looking at his velocity chart, you can really see the diversity in the speeds of his 3 main pitches:

Ely has been one of the best rookie pitchers in baseball this season.

Cubs' LVP: Geovany Soto (-.127 WPA)
Soto went 0-3 with a strikeout, which came with a runner on third and nobody out in the 8th inning. Since May 15, Soto has one hit, a .193 wOBA and an OPS of .350. Is it time to start seriously worrying about Geo? This is something I'm going to hopefully look at in detail shortly.

Dodgers' LVP: Xavier Paul (-.206 WPA)
The Other Xavier had a miserable day in the field and at the plate. Paul went 0-4 with a strikeout, and ended the fifth inning on an infield pop-up with the bases loaded. He also has apparently never played in a baseball stadium with walls, as he misplayed two balls in the right field corner in the eighth inning that gave the Cubs the only run of the game.

When you're not even the best outfielder named Xavier on the field, you know you had a bad day.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Mike Fontenot leads off the eighth with a triple (.217 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
Xavier Paul ends the fifth inning with a bases loaded pop-up. (-.096 WPA).

May 26: Dodgers @ Cubs WPA Recap (Game 46)

Cubs' MVP: Mike Fontenot (.158 WPA) Jeff Baker (.139 WPA)
I normally stick pretty straight with the numbers when handing out the game MVPs, but you know what? Not this time.

 Fontenot had a nice offensive game, doubling twice and scoring a run. He also had one of the biggest offensive plays of the game for the Cubs, pulling a Homer Simpson and getting plunked with the bases loaded in the third (.098 WPA). But Fontenot had one of the bigger blunders of the game that's not reflected in WPA: his throwing error in the second inning with two outs allowed Matt Kemp to come to the plate with runners on second and third. Kemp doubled to the left-center gap, giving the Dodgers a 5-0 lead early.

So I'm going to go ahead and give the MVP to Jeff Baker, who JUST missed a pinch hit three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh which gave the Cubs some brief hope. The triple was the biggest hit of the game in terms of WPA. (.139)

Dodgers' MVP: Casey Blake (.146 WPA)
Blake had a solid game offensively, hitting an RBI double in the first inning and adding a solo home run in the eighth. He's turning 37 this year but once again he's having a nice season. He's OPSing .846 with a wOBA of .367, both good for sixth overall amongst National League third basemen. (In case you were wondering, Aramis is dead last in both.) Blake is never really a name people come up with when they're thinking of the league's best third basemen, but he's been rock solid the last three years.

Cubs' LVP: Starlin Castro (-.227 WPA)
Rough night for The Reason (as in "the reason I watch the Cubs"). He came up with the bases loaded and no outs in the third and didn't get a runner home. He also struck out swinging in the seventh with a man on third and one out. In the field, Castro booted a ball for his sixth error of the season.

At least he still does cool stuff like this:


Dodgers' LVP: Ronald Belisario (-.084 WPA)
Belisario gets a tough LVP, as he did get Ryan Theriot to ground into a double play to end the sixth. He gave up a single to Derrek Lee in the seventh before Soriano blooped a shallow double in the vicinity of Manny Ramirez. He then left and would get charged with both of those runs after Jeff Baker tripled them home later in the inning.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Jeff Baker's triple (.139 WPA)

Biggest Hit of the Game by the Winning Team:
Matt Kemp's ground-rule double (.103 WPA)

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
With a man on first and one out in the eighth and the Cubs trailing by two, Ryan Theriot grounds into a double play. (-.100 WPA)

Least Direct Route to a Fly Ball:

May 25: Dodgers @ Cubs WPA Recap (Game 45)

I regrettably missed this game, because I love watching Clayton Kershaw pitch. His stuff on some nights can be electric, and he posts both gaudy strikeout numbers and depressing walk numbers (9.28 K/9 in his career, 4.69 BB/9). I've had him on my fantasy team for two years now and it feels like every start he's either giving you 7-8 shutout innings, or pulled after 4.2 innings at 116 pitches. One thing is for sure though: when Kershaw takes the mound, one way or another, you're going to get an entertaining game.

David Golebiewski wrote a pretty good piece on Kershaw's newly developed slider during last year's playoffs. He's throwing it almost 17% of the time this season, up from 9% when he first introduced it a year ago. His new slider has taken time away from his power curveball, whose usage has dropped from 23% in his rookie year to 17% in 2009 to just 9.6% so far this season. He's still walking way too many batters this year (34 in 59 innings), but if Kershaw can use this new pitch to start turning more of those walks into outs, the National League could be in for some trouble in the near future. Very early data this season shows his slider has been his most valuable pitch, 2.24 runs above average per 100 throws.

Anyhoo, on to the recap:

Cubs' MVP: Ryan Dempster (.579 WPA)
Dempster was absolutely marvelous last night, pitching eight shutout innings, striking out seven, and only walking one. Only one Dodger got to second base, and none reached base after the fourth inning. Dempster's .579 WPA is tops for a Cubs' pitcher this season.

On the season, Dempster now sports a 3.30 ERA with a healthy 3.80 FIP and xFIP. For some reason I thought Dempster had been getting burned by home runs at an increased rate this year, but his HR/9 sits at 1.02 and his HR/FB sits at a pretty normal 10.5%. Both of those are just fractions above his career norms. He only has three wins though, so he's not an ace. He's been the Cubs' ace this year, already worth 1.4 WAR.

"Oh hey der, Ryan. Say, can Jonathan borrow your ID so he can go boot 

some Molson? Nobody will sell to him with that weak beard of his."

Also, Derrek Lee deserves a big shout-out for one of his finer offensive games of the season: he reached base all four times and drove in all the Cubs' runs.

Dodger's MVP: Clayton Kershaw (.168 WPA)
Good Clayton showed up at Wrigley last night and threw six innings of four hit baseball. He struck out four and only walked two, which might earn him a parade outside Dodger Stadium when the team returns to California. The only run he gave up was unearned, after Ryan Theriot reached base in the sixth on a Rafael Furcal error.

Cubs' LVP: Xavier Nady (-.136 WPA)
Zaveeyay Nady went 0-3, twice ending innings with a runner in scoring position.

Dodgers' LVP: James Loney (-.121 WPA)
Loney ended the first inning by grounding into a fielder's choice with a man on second. Little did we know at the time it would be one of the prime scoring chances of the night for the Dodgers. He also had two flyouts to finish the night 0-3. An honorable mention goes to Rafael Furcal, who had two errors in the game, one of which led to the Cubs' first run of the game.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With one out in the sixth, Derrek Lee hits an RBI single to center for the game's first run. It was all the Cubs would need. (.136 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
With runners on first and third and just one out in a scoreless game, Alfonso Soriano strikes out swinging in the bottom of the fourth (-.080 WPA).