June 15: Athletics 9, Cubs 5

Short Recap:

Painful, extensive WPA Recap:

Cubs' MVP: Chad Tracy, .105 WPA
Tracy walked to lead off the fifth inning, in which the Cubs scored two runs. He also doubled in a run in the sixth.

How exciting. I think I'll wet my pants.

A's MVP: Kevin Kouzmanoff, .312 WPA
Kouzmanoff compiled a whole lot of WPA without doing that much. He did reach base four times, but his two biggest contributions included an error by Tyler Colvin and a wild pitch by Jeff Stevens, both in the seventh inning.

For some reason I thought Kouzmanoff was having a great year, but his wOBA is only .324 and his OPS is an average .741. Defensively at third, he's been a vacuum though. In 63 games (small sample, yes) his UZR rating has him at 5.1 runs above average, trailing only Adrian Beltre for tops in the AL. So while his bat has been lackluster, he leads all Oakland position players with 1.6 WAR thus far, ahead of first baseman Daric Barton (1.5 WAR) and catcher Kurt Suzuki (1.2). Ugh.

The "emergence" of these three apparently has given the A's enough reason to DFA former 28 year old young prospect Jake Fox. The predictable cries from the short bus of Cubs nation have already emerged to bring the beloved Fox back. Fox has been almost three runs below average on fastballs this season in Oakland, which have traditionally been his bread and butter as a hitter. I will admit, if he were to come back, his .264 wOBA and .327 slugging would fit right in with the Cubs' corner infielders.

Cubs' LVP: Carlos Zambrano, Derrek Lee
Big Z technically did compile the worst WPA (-.240) last night, but Zambrano was penalized for Derrek Lee's bases loaded blunders (yes, plural) in the fourth inning. Hardly his fault.

So last coupled with his 0-4 at the plate, I'm just going to hand last night's LVP to D-Lee. Because I can.

Athletics' LVP: Ryan Sweeney, -.118 WPA
The former White Sox prospect and pride of Cedar Rapids, IA went 0-5 on the night. He was also robbed by Marlon Byrd with the bases loaded in the fourth.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With two outs in the sixth, Koyie Hill's RBI single makes it a one run game. Hill also advanced to second on the throw. (.136 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
With the bases loaded and nobody out in the seventh, Mark Ellis grounds into a 5-2-3 double play, and no runs score. (-.152 WPA) To keep things interesting though, Jeff Stevens wild pitched a run home the next batter, followed by Cliff Pennington's RBI triple on which he also scored on Tyler Colvin's throwing error. It's a way of life.

Biggest Out of the Game by the Cubs:
After Starlin Castro's RBI single cut the A's lead to two in the fourth, Ryan Theriot gets caught stealing third. (-.093)

For every day from here on out that Ryan Theriot is in the starting lineup, I will personally kick one puppy.

May 25: Dodgers @ Cubs WPA Recap (Game 45)

I regrettably missed this game, because I love watching Clayton Kershaw pitch. His stuff on some nights can be electric, and he posts both gaudy strikeout numbers and depressing walk numbers (9.28 K/9 in his career, 4.69 BB/9). I've had him on my fantasy team for two years now and it feels like every start he's either giving you 7-8 shutout innings, or pulled after 4.2 innings at 116 pitches. One thing is for sure though: when Kershaw takes the mound, one way or another, you're going to get an entertaining game.

David Golebiewski wrote a pretty good piece on Kershaw's newly developed slider during last year's playoffs. He's throwing it almost 17% of the time this season, up from 9% when he first introduced it a year ago. His new slider has taken time away from his power curveball, whose usage has dropped from 23% in his rookie year to 17% in 2009 to just 9.6% so far this season. He's still walking way too many batters this year (34 in 59 innings), but if Kershaw can use this new pitch to start turning more of those walks into outs, the National League could be in for some trouble in the near future. Very early data this season shows his slider has been his most valuable pitch, 2.24 runs above average per 100 throws.

Anyhoo, on to the recap:

Cubs' MVP: Ryan Dempster (.579 WPA)
Dempster was absolutely marvelous last night, pitching eight shutout innings, striking out seven, and only walking one. Only one Dodger got to second base, and none reached base after the fourth inning. Dempster's .579 WPA is tops for a Cubs' pitcher this season.

On the season, Dempster now sports a 3.30 ERA with a healthy 3.80 FIP and xFIP. For some reason I thought Dempster had been getting burned by home runs at an increased rate this year, but his HR/9 sits at 1.02 and his HR/FB sits at a pretty normal 10.5%. Both of those are just fractions above his career norms. He only has three wins though, so he's not an ace. He's been the Cubs' ace this year, already worth 1.4 WAR.

"Oh hey der, Ryan. Say, can Jonathan borrow your ID so he can go boot 

some Molson? Nobody will sell to him with that weak beard of his."

Also, Derrek Lee deserves a big shout-out for one of his finer offensive games of the season: he reached base all four times and drove in all the Cubs' runs.

Dodger's MVP: Clayton Kershaw (.168 WPA)
Good Clayton showed up at Wrigley last night and threw six innings of four hit baseball. He struck out four and only walked two, which might earn him a parade outside Dodger Stadium when the team returns to California. The only run he gave up was unearned, after Ryan Theriot reached base in the sixth on a Rafael Furcal error.

Cubs' LVP: Xavier Nady (-.136 WPA)
Zaveeyay Nady went 0-3, twice ending innings with a runner in scoring position.

Dodgers' LVP: James Loney (-.121 WPA)
Loney ended the first inning by grounding into a fielder's choice with a man on second. Little did we know at the time it would be one of the prime scoring chances of the night for the Dodgers. He also had two flyouts to finish the night 0-3. An honorable mention goes to Rafael Furcal, who had two errors in the game, one of which led to the Cubs' first run of the game.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With one out in the sixth, Derrek Lee hits an RBI single to center for the game's first run. It was all the Cubs would need. (.136 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
With runners on first and third and just one out in a scoreless game, Alfonso Soriano strikes out swinging in the bottom of the fourth (-.080 WPA).

The 10 Most Epic Wrigley Field Home Runs, 2008-Present (10-6)

Courtesty of Hit Tracker, here are the 10 longest home runs at Wrigley Field since the start of the 2008 season. Why 2008? Because that's the earliest year where I can pull video of the actual home runs, and let's face it, nobody wants to read about really long dingers. People want to see really long dingers.

Hit Tracker uses atmospheric and observational data to determine how far a home run would have gone if its path was unobstructed and landed back at field level. The method to their madness is detailed here.

So nobody has a brain aneurysm from all the gifs, I've split the post into two. Here's 10-6. Follow the link at the bottom for 5-1.

Click on the player's name to see the full video. Click on True Distance to see Hit Tracker's flight representation of the home run.

And away we go:

#10 (tie). Carlos Lee
7/27/09 off Carlos Zambrano
True Distance: 451 feet


Chris Young
10/2/09 off Tom Gorzelanny
True Distance: 451 feet


#9 Alfonso Soriano
5/14/08 off Jake Peavy
True Distance: 453 happy feet 


#8 Derrek Lee 
7/02/09 off Chris Smith
True Distance: 455 happy feet


#7 Marlon Byrd
April 15, 2010 off Jeff Suppan
True Distance: 457 feet


#6 Lance Berkman
5/16/09 off Kevin Gregg
True Distance: 460 feet


5-1 here

May 17: Rockies @ Cubs WPA Recap (Game 39)

Cubs' MVP: Aramis Ramirez (.311 WPA)
Ramirez started the run-scoring with a two out RBI single in the first. The big knock, of course, was his two run walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th (.363 WPA). Ramirez made a lot of solid contact this game, and earned his first Game MVP of the season. Hopefully there will be more.

The Cubs' pitching staff not named John Grabow also deserves a big thumbs up in this game. Randy Wells was fantastic (.333 WPA) and would have earned MVP status if we don't factor in his hitting. Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol compiled .511 WPA with 3.2 scoreless innings in relief.

Rockies' MVP: Todd Helton (.186 WPA)
Helton had a solid day at the plate, reaching base four times.

Cubs' LVP: Derrek Lee (-.277 WPA)
Lee was so bad at the plate yesterday that by the end of the game Lou should have seriously considered telling him to not even bring a bat to the plate. Lee struck out swinging with a man on 2nd in the first, grounded into inning-ending double plays in the third and the fifth, struck out again in the 8th, then made another out in the 11th (albeit a line-out) just before A-Ram's heroics. Five at-bats, seven outs. Yikes.

Rockies' LVP: Ian Stewart (-.473)
Ian Stewart was also allergic to baserunners last night, and was so bad he made Derrek Lee look like Mickey Mantle. In the fourth inning with one out, he struck out with the bases loaded. Then in the eighth he grounded into an inning ending double play, again with the bases loaded. He finished 0-5.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Aramis' walkoff (.363 WPA)

Worst Out of the Game:
Stewart's double play in the 8th (-.287 WPA)

Big-Time Play That Easily Gets Lost In The Box Score:
In the top of the eighth, with men on first and second and nobody out and the Cubs clinging to a 2-1 lead, Marlon Byrd makes a terrific diving grab on a low liner from Troy Tulowitzki (.123 WPA).