May 25: Dodgers @ Cubs WPA Recap (Game 45)

I regrettably missed this game, because I love watching Clayton Kershaw pitch. His stuff on some nights can be electric, and he posts both gaudy strikeout numbers and depressing walk numbers (9.28 K/9 in his career, 4.69 BB/9). I've had him on my fantasy team for two years now and it feels like every start he's either giving you 7-8 shutout innings, or pulled after 4.2 innings at 116 pitches. One thing is for sure though: when Kershaw takes the mound, one way or another, you're going to get an entertaining game.

David Golebiewski wrote a pretty good piece on Kershaw's newly developed slider during last year's playoffs. He's throwing it almost 17% of the time this season, up from 9% when he first introduced it a year ago. His new slider has taken time away from his power curveball, whose usage has dropped from 23% in his rookie year to 17% in 2009 to just 9.6% so far this season. He's still walking way too many batters this year (34 in 59 innings), but if Kershaw can use this new pitch to start turning more of those walks into outs, the National League could be in for some trouble in the near future. Very early data this season shows his slider has been his most valuable pitch, 2.24 runs above average per 100 throws.

Anyhoo, on to the recap:

Cubs' MVP: Ryan Dempster (.579 WPA)
Dempster was absolutely marvelous last night, pitching eight shutout innings, striking out seven, and only walking one. Only one Dodger got to second base, and none reached base after the fourth inning. Dempster's .579 WPA is tops for a Cubs' pitcher this season.

On the season, Dempster now sports a 3.30 ERA with a healthy 3.80 FIP and xFIP. For some reason I thought Dempster had been getting burned by home runs at an increased rate this year, but his HR/9 sits at 1.02 and his HR/FB sits at a pretty normal 10.5%. Both of those are just fractions above his career norms. He only has three wins though, so he's not an ace. He's been the Cubs' ace this year, already worth 1.4 WAR.

"Oh hey der, Ryan. Say, can Jonathan borrow your ID so he can go boot 

some Molson? Nobody will sell to him with that weak beard of his."

Also, Derrek Lee deserves a big shout-out for one of his finer offensive games of the season: he reached base all four times and drove in all the Cubs' runs.

Dodger's MVP: Clayton Kershaw (.168 WPA)
Good Clayton showed up at Wrigley last night and threw six innings of four hit baseball. He struck out four and only walked two, which might earn him a parade outside Dodger Stadium when the team returns to California. The only run he gave up was unearned, after Ryan Theriot reached base in the sixth on a Rafael Furcal error.

Cubs' LVP: Xavier Nady (-.136 WPA)
Zaveeyay Nady went 0-3, twice ending innings with a runner in scoring position.

Dodgers' LVP: James Loney (-.121 WPA)
Loney ended the first inning by grounding into a fielder's choice with a man on second. Little did we know at the time it would be one of the prime scoring chances of the night for the Dodgers. He also had two flyouts to finish the night 0-3. An honorable mention goes to Rafael Furcal, who had two errors in the game, one of which led to the Cubs' first run of the game.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With one out in the sixth, Derrek Lee hits an RBI single to center for the game's first run. It was all the Cubs would need. (.136 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
With runners on first and third and just one out in a scoreless game, Alfonso Soriano strikes out swinging in the bottom of the fourth (-.080 WPA).