May 20: Cubs @ Phillies WPA Recap (Game 42)

As always, stats and graphs from Fangraphs


Cubs' MVP: Mike Fontenot (.330 WPA)
Fontenot didn't exactly light up the box score (two singles, one stolen base, no runs or RsBI) but he racked up the most WPA for the team, and by a pretty wide margin as well. Seems pretty strange Fontenot put the Cubs in a better position to win today than say, Kosuke Fukudome, who hit a game-tying solo home run in the top of the eighth inning (.238 WPA).

What this shows is the massive barrel of FAIL the Cubs opened in the top of the ninth inning. The Phillies had an 82.9% chance of winning when the top of the ninth began. After Soriano got plunked in the first at bat, their win probability dropped to 71.4%. After Fontenot's single put men at first and third with nobody out, it dropped all the way down to 44.7%.

You're reading that correctly. The Cubs were down a run in the bottom of the ninth yet found themselves favored to win the game. Two strikeouts and an infield pop up later, WPA as an entity formally apologized for not properly calculating the effect of the Chicago Cubs batting in favorable situations late in the game.

Phillies' MVP: Jimmy Rollins (.308 WPA)
Rollins only had one hit this afternoon but it was the biggest of the game, a three run homer in the bottom of the sixth with two outs to give Philadelphia a 4-1 lead.

I would also like to point out that Rollins' home run came on a 3-0 fastball, belt-high. My biggest pet peeve in all of baseball is a good hitter taking all the way with a 3-0 count. I have no idea why this is a common practice beyond high school baseball. As a hitter, if you run the count to 3-0 and the pitcher throws you ANYTHING but a fastball right in your wheelhouse, by all means take it. But if you get this:

Swing the f away. And he did.

Cubs' LVP: John Grabow (-.265 WPA)
Grabow continues to inexplicably get placed in high leverage situations. Today he coughed up the lead in the bottom of the eighth inning, walking two before giving up an RBI single to Raul Ibanez.

Phillies' LVP: Antonio Bastardo (-.238 WPA)
The Best Name In All of Baseball opened the eighth inning by giving up a game-tying home run to Kosuke Fukudome, the only batter he would face. (And it's not even April!)



Biggest Hit of the Game
Rollins' home run (.305 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game
Aramis' Ramirez strikes out on a pitch 16 feet off the plate in the top of the ninth (-.210 WPA). Soto's pop-up to end the game with the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position earns an honorable mention. (-.206 WPA)