June 8: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

I have yet to post any thoughts on the Cubs' draft because, well, I don't really have all that much to say. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I know anything about these prospects beyond what is readily available online. At the very least, maybe later in the week I'll post a list of the Cubs' draftees with links to what people smarter than me think about them. I also have a few thoughts on the Cubs' controversial selection of Hayden Simpson in the first round and how deeply we should be looking into it in terms of the Cubs' financial future.

That being said, onward to last night's recap:

Cubs' MVP: Tyler Colvin, .233 WPA
Colvin was a late addition, replacing Soriano in the lineup in left field. He went 2-4 with two singles in an offensively challenged game, one of which drove in the first run of the game with two outs in the eighth inning.

It's no secret that Cub fans everywhere want their team to buy out Kosukue Fukudome so he can honorably return to Japan or DFA the lazy Alfonso Soriano to make room for Tyler Colvin. Quite frankly, and especially of late, he's earned the right to have his name penciled in the starting lineup a few more times per week. Not because it will help the Cubs' chances in 2010 (it certainly won't), but because the Cubs need to figure out if they have a versatile fourth outfielder in Colvin or a potential power hitting corner outfielder on their hands. This lost 2010 season is the perfect opportunity to do so. In the very near future I plan to take a closer look at Tyler Colvin and what we should expect from him as the season progresses.

Oh, also an honorable mention to Ted Lilly (.221 total WPA, .264 pitching) who threw his best game of the season. Lilly threw eight innings and only allowed four baserunners. He also struck out eight Brewers. His only blemish was a game-tying home run to Corey Hart in the bottom of the eighth. Lilly also displayed an encouraging increase in velocity, averaging nearly 88 mph with his fastball, much more in tune with his career average. Maybe Theodore is finally out of spring training mode, especially considering his off-season shoulder surgery:

Interesting side note: Lilly only threw his curveball once last night, continuing his year long trend. Lilly has only thrown his curve 7.3% of the time in 2010, noticeably down from 11.3% the last two years and his career rate of 15.2%. Statistically his curveball has been one of his least valuable pitches over the course of his career. I wonder if he's shelving it for good.

Brewers' MVP: Casey McGehee. .694 WPA 
The former Cubs' prospect hit the game-winning two run RBI single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth off Carlos Marmol to give the Brewers a walk off win. McGehee now has 45 RBI on the season, which ties him with Troy Glaus for the NL lead.

Cubs' LVP: Carlos Marmol, -.792 WPA
Marmol had a disastrous ninth inning facing the meat of the Brewers' lineup, despite the fact the Brewers only hit one ball out of the infield. Marmol plunked Rickie Weeks to lead off the inning, and after a stolen base, intentionally walked Prince Fielder (the winning run) to face Ryan Braun. Braun grounded out, advancing the runners, and McGehee won it with a single up the middle. Notable was the fact that this was Marmol's second consecutive outing without a strikeout, the first time he's done that on back to back occasions all season (only four times overall). As a result, Marmol's K/9 rate has plummeted to an even 17.

The -.792 WPA is the worst single game performance of the season for the Cubs, allowing Esmalin Caridad to breathe a sigh of relief.

Brewers' LVP: John Axford, -.292 WPA
Axford pitched the ninth and momentarily surrendered the lead. After two consecutive singles by Koyie Hill and The Reason, Alfonso Soriano hit an RBI groundout.

I didn't know anything about John Axford until I saw a Cardinals-Brewers game last weekend. Last night aside, he's been pretty solid out of the pen this year for the Brewers, sporting a 1.80/2.74 FIP/xFIP. He's striking out over 11 batters per nine innings and has yet to allow a home run. His fastball also hits the mid-to-upper 90s.

The Brewers certainly have had issues with their bullpen the last few years. It's been pretty bad this year, accumulating a 6.12 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, ten blown saves, a BAA over .300, and 23 home runs allowed. They've already used fourteen different relievers this year, but it looks like Axford just may stick.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Casey McGehee's game winning RBI single in the ninth (duh); .753 WPA

Biggest Out of the Game:
Carlos Gomez pops out to Marmol, failing to get down a sac bunt in the ninth; -.127 WPA
(*headdesk*)

Biggest Out of the Game by the Cubs:
Ryan Theriot grounds out with the bases loaded to end the fifth; -.096 WPA

On the first pitch.

After Yovani Gallardo walked Ted Lilly on five pitches the previous at bat.

Yes, Ryan Theriot is so bad at baseball that opposing pitchers are now walking career .117 hitters who swing like an eleven year old girl so they can face him instead.

Let that one soak in for a while.