Will Aramis Ramirez Opt Out?

One of the big concerns for Cub fans going into 2010 (one of several, actually) was whether or not Aramis Ramirez would opt out of his contract. Ramirez has a base salary of $15.75 million this year, but can opt out and become a free agent after the season is over. If he doesn't opt out, he'd be due $14.6 million in 2011, and then another $16 million club option in 2012, with a $2 million buyout.

At first Aramis not opting out seemed to be the scarier proposition; the way he was swinging the bat, he looked like he wasn't going anywhere. After battling injuries and possibly still feeling the effects of his bum shoulder from 2009, Aramis was literally one of the least valuable players in all of baseball the first half of the season. When he went on the disabled list in early June, Ramirez had the lowest wOBA of all qualified batters in baseball (.231) and had been worth -1.2 WAR up to that point. Yes, there is a negative sign in front of that figure.

Lately though, he's been the Aramis of old. Over the last 30 days, his wOBA is .486, with an OPS of 1.171. He's back on the positive side of replacement level now as well, worth half a win for the entirety of 2010.

In fact, over the last 30 days, let's see how Aramis ranks in all of baseball in several offensive categories:

.486 wOBA - 1st
1.171 OPS - 1st
10 HR - 2nd
25 RBI - 2nd (Tie)
.437 ISO - 1st
12.4 wRAA - 6th
23.5 wRC - 8th
1.32 Cumulative WPA - 4th

So what's Ramirez going to do? ZIPS has him putting up a .365 wOBA the rest of the year. When the offseason rolls around his overall 2010 numbers won't be sexy. But he might be sexy on the free agent market, especially if he continues to hit like the top 10 third baseman he is.

A weak crop at the position may ultimately influence his decision. Here's a look at some of the notable names of third basemen near Aramis' age or younger that could be or will be free agents after this season (age in parentheses).

Garrett Atkins (31) - Designated for assignment by the Orioles (the ORIOLES!!) in June.
Adrian Beltre (32) - Having an excellent year with the Red Sox, and holds a very cheap $5 million player option for 2010. If he reaches 640 plate appearances, which he might, it increases to $10 million.
Wilson Betemit (29) - Swinging a ridiculously hot (.480 wOBA in 70 plate appearances) and ridiculously lucky (.452 BABIP with an 11% LD rate) bat for the Royals in limited opportunities. A nice little player, but won't command anywhere near the money as Aramis.
Jorge Cantu (29) - Having a disappointing season in Florida (.319 wOBA, 0.5 WAR) after two nice seasons. Pretty bad defender at third as well.
Eric Chavez (33) - Injured since May, and even then he hasn't been any good for a while.
Bill Hall (31) - Playing okay in Boston but also is not going to be commanding a multi-million dollar salary.
Brandon Inge (34) - Two years older than Aramis with a worse bat.
Jose Lopez (27) - Solid glove, not to mention the youngest guy on this list. Too bad his bat is terrible (.264 wOBA, -19.5 wRAA).
Jhonny Peralta (29) - Working on an underwhelming season in Cleveland (.315 wOBA, 0.7 WAR)
Miguel Tejada (37) - Oldest guy on this list who is putting up his worst season since his sophomore year in 1998. The clock may have struck midnight on an excellent career.
Ty Wigginton (33) - Having an average year in Baltimore, and doesn't play third base very much anymore.

Can't say I'm exactly blown away. I could see Adrian Beltre hitting free agency again, considering he can make more than his $5 million player option and the Red Sox desire to add another bat and leave Youk and Victor Martinez at the corners. But after Beltre, Aramis Ramirez is the best 3B option, assuming he doesn't revert back to his sub-replacement level performance from the first half. The real question then becomes this: Is there a team that is going to give an over 30 third basemen with recent injury problems a long term contract worth more than $30 million?

Here is my hunch of what will happen:

Aramis exercises his player option and makes his guaranteed $14.6 million in 2011, then most likely gets bought out of his final year for $2 million and hits free agency before the 2012 season. He could once again be the big fish in a third base class that includes the likes of Casey Blake, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and God.

I'm going to have a post in the near future that details Aramis' Ramirez immediate future a little more closely, including what teams will be his most likely suitors and what he can expect financially.

Raise your hand if you can make a guaranteed $14.6 million next year.

Once a Cancer, Always a Cancer

Milton Bradley assaulted one of his teammates on the field last night.

No word yet if a suspension is coming.

July 18: This is What a Crash and Burn Looks Like

Textbook. We will discuss yesterday's epic meltdown later.

W(ire)NBA

Worldwide Wes

The figurehead at the top. All decisions go through him. No one even knows what he looks like.

Maverick Carter

The brains of the operation. Brings in the money. Wes and Carter are practically invisible on the streets.

LeBron James

The enforcer, directly beneath the two at the top. Has no problem sharing the load to get what he wants

Dwyane Wade

Has an established corner that he's not giving up. Likes to think he's in charge of everything.

Chris Bosh

Third banana, has never really done anything.

Michael Beasley

About to get popped for the good of the Barksdales.

Kobe Bryant

Cold-blooded assassin from far away with a reputation. On good terms with the Barksdales, but that can change quickly.

Joe Johnson

Lone wolf with no ties to anyone. A sharp-shooter who follows the money.

Derrick Rose

Up-and-comer, viable threat to the Barksdales with something to prove.

Carlos Boozer

Rose's enforcer.

Joakim Noah

Rose's androgynous enforcer.

Amare Stoudemire

"No one else came to New York? Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit, well at least I got paid."

Charles Barkley

Obese black male.

David Stern

Everyone actually works for him.

NBA Players Union

Making it easier for players in The Game to get what they want. Good intentions, questionable results.

NBA Owners

Pass the buck and pretend they are powerless when things go south, even though they're the morons calling the shots in the first place.

College basketball/NBA Draft

It's really only a matter of time before it's their turn.

General Public

Walking the fine line between desperately seeking information, and just not giving a shit

Cavaliers Fans

Just cannot catch a break in life.

Knicks Fans

Same situation as Bubbles, but you enjoy their misery.

ESPN

Pretty much no reason to believe a single word they ever say about anything.

The NBA

At the complete mercy of all this bullshit.

The Dream Is Over

I just came home to find this waiting for me in my sink:

It was a good effort, Bulls fans, but it's clearly over.

Your Interest Interests Me

Apparently, a few weeks ago the San Francisco Giants were interested in acquiring Ryan Theriot, who is arguably the worst regular starter in the entire National League.

No, seriously. Ryan Theriot has the lowest OPS of any player in the National League who has had 300 plate appearances or more.

Ryan Theriot has the lowest cumulative WPA of any player in baseball.

Ryan Theriot has the lowest ISO of any player in baseball.

The only player in the NL with as many plate appearances as Theriot and a lower wOBA is Nyjer Morgan.

The only player in the NL with as many plate appearances as Theriot and less WAR is Raul Ibanez.

(Cub fans may also know Raul Ibanez as THE GUY WHO JIMBO SHOULD HAVE GIVEN $30 MILLION TO INSTEAD OF MILTON BRADLEY FIRE HENDRYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!)

If anyone is willing to give anything for Ryan Theriot, and I mean ANYTHING, the Cubs need to jump on it. Immediately.

In fact, if you're reading this Brian Sabean, I just want you to know that to save you airfare I am offering to personally drive Mr. Theriot to San Francisco should you trade for him. All I ask is that you split gas money.

(hat tip to PFD over at Another Cubs Blog)

July 5: Cubs 9, Diamondbacks 4

After a long hiatus of holiday pleasure and, well, just not giving a shit about Cubs' baseball, I'm back with the Cubs' WPA recaps you've all come to know and love.

Cubs' MVP: Sean Marshall, .126 WPA
In a game with a lot of offense, Sean Marshall earned a surprising game MVP for extinguishing any hopes of an Arizona comeback. Marshall entered the game with one out in the seventh and pitched a perfect 1.2 innings, striking out three batters.

Sean Marshall has been good this year. Like, really good. He's currently eighth in WAR amongst all relievers in baseball, fourth amongst non-closers. His ERA, FIP, xFIP, and tERA are all comfortably under 3. He's striking out more batters than ever before, getting more ground balls than ever before, and has only given up one home run all season.

Marshall became arbitration-eligible for the first time this season. The Cubs would be wise to move him this year while he's still cheap to a contender looking for bullpen help. Boston, perhaps?

Diamondbacks' MVP: Chris Young, .214 WPA
Young continued his impressive 2010 rebound campaign by reaching base four times, scoring two runs, and stealing two bases. His disastrous 2009 season where he posted a .314 wOBA is looking like a thing of the past.

Last year Young struck out over 30% of the time and had a career high 55.6 fly ball percentage. His plate discipline rates and batted ball types are once again much more in line with his 2008 numbers, a season in which he was worth 2.2 WAR in 160 games. Through 81 games this year he's been worth 2.5 WAR, good for eighth amongst all NL outfielders.

Cubs' LVP: Andrew Cashner, -.104 WPA
For the first time since his callup, Cashner pitched on consecutive days. It wasn't pretty.

Cashner threw thirteen fastballs, but only three for strikes. He entered the game in the sixth and promptly got Stephen Drew to ground out, but couldn't retire any of the next three batters.

It's been a while since Cashner has had a good outing. He's given up runs in each of his last six outings (although the two he surrendered to Pittsburgh on 6/30 were unearned).

For those of you keeping score at home, Cashner has pitched 15.1 innings during his 36 days in the bigs. He's on pace to pitch around 110 innings in 2010, a season where he needs to get to at least 150-160 innings to continue a safe progression to starting pitcher. It's a way of life.

Diamondbacks' LVP: Ian Kennedy, -.399 WPA (-.377 pitching)
Kennedy got knocked around, giving up a week's worth of Cub offense in under six innings. The former Yankee gave up seven earned runs on nine hits, including a leadoff homer to April Fukudome. He did strike out six and walk none, but giving up seven runs to this Cub offense is a tradeable offense.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
With nobody out in the fifth inning, Kelly Johnson triples home a run off Tom Gorzellany to cut the lead to two (.146 WPA). He would be stranded at third.

Biggest Hit of the Game for the Winning Team:
With two on and nobody out in the second, Starlin Castro triples home two runs to increase the Cubs' lead to three (.144 WPA).

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
1) With runners on the corners in the third inning of a 4-1 game, Mark Reynolds grounds into an inning-ending double play (-.118 WPA).
2) After Kelly Johnson's previously mentioned RBI triple, Arizona's win probability rose to 42.1%. After four straight batters failed to drive him in from third base, their win probability had plummeted to 23.4%.

It's Getting Difficult Just Telling People I Know You

If you ever wonder if certain Cub fans deserve their "misery," just read through this thread.