After a long hiatus of holiday pleasure and, well, just not giving a shit about Cubs' baseball, I'm back with the Cubs' WPA recaps you've all come to know and love.
In a game with a lot of offense, Sean Marshall earned a surprising game MVP for extinguishing any hopes of an Arizona comeback. Marshall entered the game with one out in the seventh and pitched a perfect 1.2 innings, striking out three batters.
Sean Marshall has been good this year. Like, really good. He's currently eighth in WAR amongst all relievers in baseball, fourth amongst non-closers. His ERA, FIP, xFIP, and tERA are all comfortably under 3. He's striking out more batters than ever before, getting more ground balls than ever before, and has only given up one home run all season.
Marshall became arbitration-eligible for the first time this season. The Cubs would be wise to move him this year while he's still cheap to a contender looking for bullpen help. Boston, perhaps?
Diamondbacks' MVP: Chris Young, .214 WPA
Young continued his impressive 2010 rebound campaign by reaching base four times, scoring two runs, and stealing two bases. His disastrous 2009 season where he posted a .314 wOBA is looking like a thing of the past.
Last year Young struck out over 30% of the time and had a career high 55.6 fly ball percentage. His plate discipline rates and batted ball types are once again much more in line with his 2008 numbers, a season in which he was worth 2.2 WAR in 160 games. Through 81 games this year he's been worth 2.5 WAR, good for eighth amongst all NL outfielders.
Cubs' LVP: Andrew Cashner, -.104 WPA
For the first time since his callup, Cashner pitched on consecutive days. It wasn't pretty.
It's been a while since Cashner has had a good outing. He's given up runs in each of his last six outings (although the two he surrendered to Pittsburgh on 6/30 were unearned).
For those of you keeping score at home, Cashner has pitched 15.1 innings during his 36 days in the bigs. He's on pace to pitch around 110 innings in 2010, a season where he needs to get to at least 150-160 innings to continue a safe progression to starting pitcher. It's a way of life.
Diamondbacks' LVP: Ian Kennedy, -.399 WPA (-.377 pitching)
Kennedy got knocked around, giving up a week's worth of Cub offense in under six innings. The former Yankee gave up seven earned runs on nine hits, including a leadoff homer to April Fukudome. He did strike out six and walk none, but giving up seven runs to this Cub offense is a tradeable offense.
Biggest Hit of the Game:
With nobody out in the fifth inning, Kelly Johnson triples home a run off Tom Gorzellany to cut the lead to two (.146 WPA). He would be stranded at third.
Biggest Hit of the Game for the Winning Team:
With two on and nobody out in the second, Starlin Castro triples home two runs to increase the Cubs' lead to three (.144 WPA).
Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
1) With runners on the corners in the third inning of a 4-1 game, Mark Reynolds grounds into an inning-ending double play (-.118 WPA).
2) After Kelly Johnson's previously mentioned RBI triple, Arizona's win probability rose to 42.1%. After four straight batters failed to drive him in from third base, their win probability had plummeted to 23.4%.
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