Will Aramis Ramirez Opt Out?

One of the big concerns for Cub fans going into 2010 (one of several, actually) was whether or not Aramis Ramirez would opt out of his contract. Ramirez has a base salary of $15.75 million this year, but can opt out and become a free agent after the season is over. If he doesn't opt out, he'd be due $14.6 million in 2011, and then another $16 million club option in 2012, with a $2 million buyout.

At first Aramis not opting out seemed to be the scarier proposition; the way he was swinging the bat, he looked like he wasn't going anywhere. After battling injuries and possibly still feeling the effects of his bum shoulder from 2009, Aramis was literally one of the least valuable players in all of baseball the first half of the season. When he went on the disabled list in early June, Ramirez had the lowest wOBA of all qualified batters in baseball (.231) and had been worth -1.2 WAR up to that point. Yes, there is a negative sign in front of that figure.

Lately though, he's been the Aramis of old. Over the last 30 days, his wOBA is .486, with an OPS of 1.171. He's back on the positive side of replacement level now as well, worth half a win for the entirety of 2010.

In fact, over the last 30 days, let's see how Aramis ranks in all of baseball in several offensive categories:

.486 wOBA - 1st
1.171 OPS - 1st
10 HR - 2nd
25 RBI - 2nd (Tie)
.437 ISO - 1st
12.4 wRAA - 6th
23.5 wRC - 8th
1.32 Cumulative WPA - 4th

So what's Ramirez going to do? ZIPS has him putting up a .365 wOBA the rest of the year. When the offseason rolls around his overall 2010 numbers won't be sexy. But he might be sexy on the free agent market, especially if he continues to hit like the top 10 third baseman he is.

A weak crop at the position may ultimately influence his decision. Here's a look at some of the notable names of third basemen near Aramis' age or younger that could be or will be free agents after this season (age in parentheses).

Garrett Atkins (31) - Designated for assignment by the Orioles (the ORIOLES!!) in June.
Adrian Beltre (32) - Having an excellent year with the Red Sox, and holds a very cheap $5 million player option for 2010. If he reaches 640 plate appearances, which he might, it increases to $10 million.
Wilson Betemit (29) - Swinging a ridiculously hot (.480 wOBA in 70 plate appearances) and ridiculously lucky (.452 BABIP with an 11% LD rate) bat for the Royals in limited opportunities. A nice little player, but won't command anywhere near the money as Aramis.
Jorge Cantu (29) - Having a disappointing season in Florida (.319 wOBA, 0.5 WAR) after two nice seasons. Pretty bad defender at third as well.
Eric Chavez (33) - Injured since May, and even then he hasn't been any good for a while.
Bill Hall (31) - Playing okay in Boston but also is not going to be commanding a multi-million dollar salary.
Brandon Inge (34) - Two years older than Aramis with a worse bat.
Jose Lopez (27) - Solid glove, not to mention the youngest guy on this list. Too bad his bat is terrible (.264 wOBA, -19.5 wRAA).
Jhonny Peralta (29) - Working on an underwhelming season in Cleveland (.315 wOBA, 0.7 WAR)
Miguel Tejada (37) - Oldest guy on this list who is putting up his worst season since his sophomore year in 1998. The clock may have struck midnight on an excellent career.
Ty Wigginton (33) - Having an average year in Baltimore, and doesn't play third base very much anymore.

Can't say I'm exactly blown away. I could see Adrian Beltre hitting free agency again, considering he can make more than his $5 million player option and the Red Sox desire to add another bat and leave Youk and Victor Martinez at the corners. But after Beltre, Aramis Ramirez is the best 3B option, assuming he doesn't revert back to his sub-replacement level performance from the first half. The real question then becomes this: Is there a team that is going to give an over 30 third basemen with recent injury problems a long term contract worth more than $30 million?

Here is my hunch of what will happen:

Aramis exercises his player option and makes his guaranteed $14.6 million in 2011, then most likely gets bought out of his final year for $2 million and hits free agency before the 2012 season. He could once again be the big fish in a third base class that includes the likes of Casey Blake, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and God.

I'm going to have a post in the near future that details Aramis' Ramirez immediate future a little more closely, including what teams will be his most likely suitors and what he can expect financially.

Raise your hand if you can make a guaranteed $14.6 million next year.