May 27: Dodgers @ Cubs (Game 47)

Cubs' MVP: Ted Lilly (.396 WPA, .448 pitching)
Lilly threw seven really strong innings today. The Dodgers loaded the bases in the fifth with two outs, and really had no other legitimate chances to plate any runs beyond that. Lilly allowed only three hits, walked three more, and struck out five. His .448 WPA pitching performance is the second best by a Cubs' starter this season, trailing only Ryan Dempster's stellar performance against the Dodgers two nights ago.

So results aside, the question was asked by a commenter (can't remember who) at the 126th best Cubs' blog of whether or not Lilly's decreased velocity this season is of concern. Fangraphs has his fastball averaging 85.9 MPH so far this season, down almost two full miles per hour from his career average. How did his start fare today? From Brooks Baseball:

Lilly threw 23 fastballs at an average of 85.54 MPH, which is right at his season average. His slider sat around 79-80, also right at his slightly-down season average. Lilly also threw 54 changeups averaging 80.13 MPH, which is above the norm for him.

Lilly traditionally is a slow starter in terms of his velocity, and with the missed time from his shoulder injury he may still be in spring training mode. Still, this already being his seventh start, it might be something to keep an eye on. 

Dodgers' MVP: John Ely (.079 WPA, .155 pitching)

The 24-year old former White Sox draft pick threw a pretty good game himself, giving up one earned run in 7.1 innings. He struck out four, walked two, and gave up only four hits. On the season Ely has a superb 1.81 FIP along with a 3.23 xFIP. He's been striking out nearly eight batters per nine innings, has only six walks in 40 innings, and has already been worth 1.4 WAR. His changeup is his money pitch, which he threw 30 times today. Looking at his velocity chart, you can really see the diversity in the speeds of his 3 main pitches:

Ely has been one of the best rookie pitchers in baseball this season.

Cubs' LVP: Geovany Soto (-.127 WPA)
Soto went 0-3 with a strikeout, which came with a runner on third and nobody out in the 8th inning. Since May 15, Soto has one hit, a .193 wOBA and an OPS of .350. Is it time to start seriously worrying about Geo? This is something I'm going to hopefully look at in detail shortly.

Dodgers' LVP: Xavier Paul (-.206 WPA)
The Other Xavier had a miserable day in the field and at the plate. Paul went 0-4 with a strikeout, and ended the fifth inning on an infield pop-up with the bases loaded. He also has apparently never played in a baseball stadium with walls, as he misplayed two balls in the right field corner in the eighth inning that gave the Cubs the only run of the game.

When you're not even the best outfielder named Xavier on the field, you know you had a bad day.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
Mike Fontenot leads off the eighth with a triple (.217 WPA)

Biggest Out of the Game:
Xavier Paul ends the fifth inning with a bases loaded pop-up. (-.096 WPA).