I wrote yesterday that Xavier Nady's batted ball numbers indicated that he was the unluckiest hitter on the team thus far. Nady had been hitting line drives 28% of the time with a minimal number of pop-ups, but was only batting at a .222 clip.
Well, that changed yesterday, as Nady had his finest offensive game as a Cub: four hits, including a double and a deep two-run home run to open up the scoring.
Pirates' MVP: Neil Walker, .449 WPA
The Great Neil Walker delivered the deciding blow of the game, hitting a two-run homer off Ted Lilly in the bottom of the eighth, his first career home run. Walker is a former first round draft pick back in 2004, and his journey through the minor league ranks was recently charted in a Rotographs article by David Golebiewski. He's dropped off in the last few years, but playing the Cubs tends to bring out the best in people. He looks to be a super-utility player, as he's spent a decent amount of time at nearly every position in the minor leagues. The Pirates hope they have a future Ben Zobrist type player on their hands, or perhaps (OMG) Mark DeRosa.
Cubs' LVP: Ted Lilly, -.231 WPA (-.182 pitching)
Lilly was cruising along in this one until the eighth inning, when he walked Andrew McCutcheon with one out. The next batter was the aforementioned Neil Walker, who homered to one of the deepest areas of the park. Just for fun, Lilly stayed in the game for the next two batters, walking one of them, before Carlos Marmol came in and did what he does best: strike MFers out. Lilly ended up pitching 7.2 innings, striking out six, walking four, and surrendering two home runs (the other to Garrett Jones, who has officially achieved Cub Killer status).
I said I'd keep an eye on Ted Lilly's velocity because it's been down for a good portion of this year. Brooks has his fastball and sinker averaging around 85 mph, which is right about where he's been all season. However, Lilly's velocity was peaking last night towards the end of the game, which is an encouraging sign. Just take a look at pitch speed charts from his last two starts:
5/27 against LA:
6/1 against PIT:
So there was still some gas left in the tank towards the end of the game this time around, though he wasn't throwing those pitches for strikes. Something to keep an eye on.
Pirates' LVP: Ronny Cedeno, -.158 WPA
Cedeno went 0-3 with a strikeout and grounded into a double play to end the seventh inning.
Biggest Hit of the Game:
Walker's home run. (.548 WPA)
Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
Cedeno's double play in the seventh. (-.113 WPA)
It was over when*:
Marlon Byrd struck out leading off the ninth inning. (Pirate's Win Probability: 96.4%)
*Play in which the result allowed the eventual winning team's victory probability to surpass 95%, and stay above that mark for the remainder of the game
Today's Reason to be Excited About Starlin Castro:
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