June 16: Cubs 6, Athletics 2

Cubs' MVP: Ryan Dempster, .120 WPA (.183 pitching)
Demp threw 6.2 innings, giving up two runs on eight hits. He struck out seven while walking just two. Pitch counts be damned, this was the fourth time this year Ryan Dempster has thrown at least 120 pitches.

Ryan Dempster's slider is good. A year ago it was called the best in baseball by Chris Harris at ESPN. Here is a visualization from Brooks Baseball of an overhead view of his average pitch from last night. His slider is the blue one, his fastball green.

Look how similar it is to his four seam fastball until the last ten feet or so. His slider looks like a weak fastball to hitters. It's understandable why it's so effective when he mixes them well. He got nine swinging strikes on his slider in yesterday's game alone.

And last night wasn't even his best display, as it was only deviating an inch or two. Check out the same chart from his May 25 start against the Dodgers, his best of the season.

Same pitch until the last fifteen feet, but about a six inch differential in where they ended up.

The pitch itself isn't overpowering, it simply catches hitters by surprise. Compare it to an overhead visualization of Zack Greinke's slider, which he doesn't throw as often as Dempster but has earned a reputation of being nasty:

Looks a lot different from Demp's slider.

How does their horizontal and vertical movement compare?

Dempster:

Greinke:

My limited understanding of pitch f/x is that the further from the 0,0 point on this plot, the nastier your pitch is. Dempster and Greinke's sliders resist gravity at similar rates but Greinke gets a lot more side to side movement. It's a harder pitch to hit.

If anything, Dempster's slider hovers around the 0,0 point a little too much. If he threw it repeatedly by itself, it'd probably get mashed. But by coupling it with his fastball, he's been missing bats effectively in 2010, compiling the  best K/9 ratio (8.37) as a starting pitcher of his career thus far.

Athletics' MVP: Conor Jackson, .084 WPA
Oakland's newly acquired toy had two hits, a walk and a run scored in his second game with the team. Jackson was struggling with the Diamondbacks this season before the trade, after putting up two solid but not spectacular years from 2006-2008. Then he got "valley fever"  and hasn't been the same since. It's hard to predict how a healthy Jackson will bounce back in a superior league and a cavernous stadium, but when one of the Brothers Patterson is getting plenty of time in your outfield, it's time to reevaluate things.

Cubs' LVP: Ryan Theriot, -.062 WPA
Theriot went 0-4 in the leadoff spot last night and saw a whopping total of nine pitches. I've heard some talk of Ryan Theriot's "resurgence" since his abysmal May (.236/.257/.245, .238 wOBA) because he's pieced together a few multi-hit games. So far in June he's hitting .275/.315/.294, good for a .283 wOBA. Improvement!

The only Cubs' regulars who have worse wOBAs in June than Theriot in June are Kosuke Fukudome (.258) and Starlin Castro (.191). At least those two have the excuses of calendar month and age, respectively.

Athletics' LVP: Gio Gonzalez, -.340 WPA (-.277 pitching)
Gonzalez gave up six runs on eight hits in five innings of work last night. He walked three and struck out three. Gonzalez has been a decent pitcher this year, earning a 4.02 FIP thus far. He gets a lot of weak infield flies and throws a pretty decent curveball, although he still walks plenty of batters.

Last night he spent more time in the middle of the strike zone than he probably would have liked, particularly his curveball, and the Cubs were able to make solid contact.

Internet Lord Harry Pavlidis wrote a small piece on some of his pitching tendencies as well.

Biggest Hit of the Game:
In the second inning, Derrek Lee homers off Gio Gonzalez to tie the game at 1-1. (.109 WPA)

Biggest Out(s) of the Game:
With men on first and second in the first inning and a run already on the board, Kurt Suzuki grounds into a double play to end the threat. (-.077 WPA)

It Was Over When:
Daric Barton grounded out with men on second and third and only one out in the seventh. A run scored, but the Cubs' probability of victory rose to 95.4% and stayed above 95% the rest of the game.